You shouldn’t get too attached to budgets. Ads, even the prettiest ones, can end their life in a recycling bin. Or, as they say in theology, in limbo.
The Freeland budget must be analyzed in this context. It is probably the penultimate of the minority Liberal government. A plausible scenario is that another party will take power in less than two years.
A new government is reluctant to abolish programs. Voters hold on to their achievements. But it’s easier to shut down ongoing initiatives, especially if they turn out to be more complicated or costly than expected.
However, several announcements in this budget are far from being cast in concrete. This is the case in health and, to a lesser extent, in housing.
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There are two reasons for this. Some will be implemented gradually, and most of the funding will come after 2025-26. Others require an agreement – and therefore a negotiation – with the provinces and municipalities.
The future could arrive in a long time.
Justin Trudeau owes his 2015 victory to young people. This electorate is now beyond his control. According to pollster Pallas, 18-34 year olds now support the conservatives (38%), far ahead of the liberals (21%).
For them, property seems like an unattainable dream. This budget thinks of them. The Liberals have come up with a thousand housing programs. No less than 23 initiatives are budgeted, for a cost of 8.5 billion over five years, in addition to numerous loans granted at advantageous rates.
Funds, programs and strategies therefore overlap, and not all layers are equally strong.
The tax on vacant residential land? A consultation is coming.
The Permanent Fund for Public Transportation? It is not yet created. Municipalities will have to increase construction density and eliminate parking requirements near public transit. The negotiation on the “how” remains to be done. And there is the definition of “affordable” housing which fluctuates depending on the programs and which is the subject of debate.
The Build in Canada Initiative, which will finance more the construction of rental units? It is supposed to reduce project approval times. But ironically, it too will have to wait for an agreement to be reached with the provinces.
It is difficult to offer in a few lines a faithful portrait of the housing plan. In their defense, if the Liberals are taking action, it is because cities and provinces were not doing enough.
Some measures will have a rapid and welcome effect, such as the Housing Acceleration Fund. But at the very least, we note this irony: in the name of the urgency of the housing crisis, liberals sometimes venture into programs that will take time to take effect.
In addition to the support of the youngest, Mr. Trudeau responds to another political requirement: to please the New Democrats, without whom his minority government risks falling.
Both parties do not hesitate to interfere in provincial jurisdictions in health and education. At the request of the NDP, this budget therefore confirms the implementation of dental insurance and drug insurance programs.
For medications, only contraception and diabetes are covered for the moment. The vast majority (1.3 out of 1.5 billion) of spending is planned for after 2025. If an agreement is reached with the provinces, of course.
Three years after promising it, they also created a national school feeding program. But some provinces already offer them. Here again, we will have to agree.
According to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Canadians don’t care much about jurisdictional squabbles. It’s true.
But the programs developed in Ottawa are far from the field. And therefore, far from always being effective.
The federal government is more adept when it comes to tax measures. For example, his child allowance is a success. It has reduced the child poverty rate from 16.3% to 6.4% since 2015. The new disability benefit is also expected to quickly reach its goal.
But here again, certain tax programs also remain complex. Some have been in the oven for several months. Among them: the tax credit promised last year to finance up to 15% of clean electricity production. State-owned companies like Hydro-Québec will be eligible. The measure has been analyzed, dissected, welcomed… but it is not in force. The negotiations are not over.
The Conservative Party intends to table a plan to return to balanced budgets, which the Liberals have never done. But he does not yet give a timetable.
However, he clarified his approach. For every program created, another will be abolished.
Its leader Pierre Poilievre promised to maintain the so-called “national” daycare program. He doesn’t really have a choice, because he is already in the process of being established. But his analysis could be different for drug insurance. And in housing, if the programs are not ready, and if the provinces are not enthusiastic, he can replace them with his own.
The liberals are right, they have ambition. But they do not always have the means – in every sense of the word – of their ambitions.