(Chicago) A political convention is not just a meticulously choreographed television spectacle.
During the day, the 5,000 delegates from across the country, who have come to spend a week here at their own expense, meet in strategy workshops, training on all issues, Latino caucuses, Black caucuses, LGBTQ+ caucuses, “seniors”, etc.
Walking into a workshop called “Winning with Black People,” I ran into a pollster from a young Chicago firm, HIT Strategies.
PHOTO YVES BOISVERT, THE PRESS
Joshua Doss
The hope that everyone has been talking about for a month is not just an impression, it is measurable in our data.
Joshua Doss, analyst for the firm Hit Strategies
How ?
“When Joe Biden was the candidate, Democratic voters were asked if they wanted to vote For Biden or against Trump. Sixty-five percent of them said they would vote against Trump first. People who said, “I don’t like Biden that much, but I definitely don’t want to see Trump again.” That’s a complete reversal since Kamala Harris came in: 65 percent say they’re voting for her, not against Trump. »
Blue bonnet, blue bonnet, you might say: a Democratic vote is a Democratic vote, regardless of the underlying motivation.
Probably. Except that positive energy is what brings together the undecided and the disillusioned. Those who will never vote for Trump, but who risked staying home instead of voting for a diminished Biden.
“We give people a list of feelings and ask them which one most represents their motivation for their candidate. For Trump voters, fear comes first, at 41%, followed by anger, at 33%. It’s quantitative, so we don’t know fear of what, whether it’s the border, crime, etc. But before Harris came along, those who said they wanted to vote for Biden had the same feelings, in roughly the same proportions: anger and fear. Fear of other things, no doubt, but fear.”
“Harris’ arrival has completely changed the picture. The first feeling of Harris voters is hope, at 41%. And in that, she offers something else to independent voters. This measurable hope relays the enthusiasm of her campaign, and that is why the data is moving in the key states. She arrives with the idea of going beyond the bitterness of politics, which Biden did not communicate to voters.”
“If this continues, she could hope to win states like North Carolina, Nevada, Arizona. [où Biden était loin derrière Trump]. »
What about Gaza? For months, the media has been saying that the issue is dividing Democrats, and that it could cause young voters to defect. The campus encampments made a huge media splash. But the issue has completely disappeared from the electoral radar.
Before the convention began, there were reports of massive pro-Palestinian demonstrations that were supposed to disrupt the event. That didn’t happen.
Unlike in 1968, when some Democrats supported the Vietnam War and others opposed it, this year Monday’s very average demonstration was organized by left-wing groups. The Democratic presence was invisible.
The “Speaker Emeritus” of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, still going strong at 84, came to make a briefing for the international press on Thursday. She highlighted the discipline of the party’s left wing. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez delivered a line on the conflict, Bernie Sanders, a paragraph. But in their highly anticipated speech to delegates, neither spoke of their opposition to American military aid to Israel, she stressed. “We have to start by winning the election!” said the woman who has been in Congress since 1987 and is running again in San Francisco in the fall.
Joshua Doss, whose firm focuses on millennial attitudes, has measured the impact of the Palestinian issue on the election. It’s pretty much zero.
“Across the electorate, it’s a major issue for less than 6% of people. These are mostly voters under 29, mostly concentrated in blue states anyway. This is a group of voters that tends to vote less than any other age group.”
The Democrats had a successful convention. They were able to present their candidate and emphasize the campaign’s key themes: defense of the middle class, return of optimism, tax fairness, defense of the rights of women and minorities.
The Clintons, Elizabeth Warren, Reverend Al Sharpton, and all the representatives of the generation that is giving up its place have come to make the connection between the struggles of the 1960s and 1970s, those of today, and the “historic” candidacy of a black woman, unthinkable not so long ago.
They also introduced the new generation of Democratic leaders, Governors Wes Moore, Josh Shapiro, Gretchen Whitmer, and several others.
Delegates are in such high spirits that every keynote speaker, from Clinton to Obama, has warned them against what David Axelrod calls “irrational enthusiasm.” This election is still very close and unpredictable.
It is perhaps worth recalling that the Republican convention was also a triumph, an organizational flawless performance. Donald Trump emerged as the presumed winner, having accomplished all his objectives: party unity, a message well received by voters (inflation caused by Biden, it was better before, insecurity, uncontrolled immigration, etc.).
There are now two and a half months left until the presidential election. And if this completely surreal political summer has taught us anything, it’s that anything can happen.
Seventy-five days of campaigning is an eternity. Seventy-five days ago, it was June 11, and the Biden-Trump debate hadn’t even happened…