The colonel, with his face bordered by a thick beard, dressed in fatigues, declares it bluntly, equal to his military caliber: “We are ready to fight. » A few words which, in Estonia, testify to the seriousness of the geopolitical context and which no longer surprise many people in this small Baltic state. Eero Rebo, chief of staff of the Estonian Defense League, has a front-row seat to the upheaval caused by the Kremlin’s aggression even in his country, which shares a border of nearly 300 kilometers with Russia .
Since Moscow launched its tanks to conquer Kiev on February 24, 2022, some 4,000 new recruits have joined the League, entirely made up of civilians, reinforcing the forces of the regular army.
A phenomenon which, far from surprising Eero Rebo, is easily explained. “Do we prefer to suffer or to act? To endure the next war or to prepare for it as best as possible? This is why Estonians, many educated young people, joined the defense league,” relates the officer from the headquarters of his organization, a stone’s throw from the historic center of Tallinn, the capital, still carpeted here and there colors of Ukraine.
The officer details the “state of readiness of the forces”, which hover around 30,000 citizen volunteers. About half of its members are authorized to possess a weapon, and joint maneuvers with NATO forces are occasionally organized. “We are present throughout the territory, in a network with municipalities, the police, emergency services… And ready to defend the slightest centimeter from the first second,” says officer Rebo.
A country invaded many times
Established in 1918, the Estonian Defense League reflects the upheavals in the history of a country that has been invaded many times. With his back to Colonel Rebo, a wall displays the work Those who liberated the homeland, by the painter Maximilian Maksolly, depicting soldiers with drawn features, returning from the front, rifles on their shoulders. The war of independence, which ended in 1920 with a victory for Estonia, repelling an offensive by the Red Army, laid the foundations for today’s borders. A vivid reminder of the tragic parts of the history of little Estonia, which has repeatedly faced the same enemy. That of a power which, today, under a certainly different face, perpetuates its imperialist inclinations: the Russia of Vladimir Putin.
If there is one question that does not arouse debate among the majority of Estonians’ 1.3 million people, it is the existential nature of the war in Ukraine. The fate of kyiv is also theirs, as evidenced by the badge in the blue and yellow colors of the invaded country worn on Officer Rebo’s uniform. “Over the last millennium, we were attacked more than 200 times by the Russians and occupied by the USSR until 1991,” says Neeme Brus, retired officer and head of communications for the League. Since their independence, acquired in 1991 upon leaving the USSR, Moscow has never ceased to constitute the number one threat for the Estonians, who have been part of NATO since 2004, like Lithuania and the Latvia, its two Baltic neighbors. The trauma of the deportations orchestrated under Stalin, to the gulag in Siberia, remains anchored in people’s minds.
Faced with the Russian threat buzzing at its doors, little Estonia is on a war footing. In mid-January, together with Lithuania and Latvia, the Estonian authorities announced the construction of a “Baltic defense line” along their border with Russia. Tallinn alone will build 600 underground bunkers. “The Baltics have always been on the lookout for a potential Russian threat, but the invasion of Crimea in 2014 and large-scale aggression in 2022 has increased defense investments. To the point that these three countries now devote more than 3% of their GDP to it,” notes Tony Lawrence, analyst at the International Center for Defense and Security (ICDS), an Estonian think tank.
It is also the whole of society that is mobilizing. Since the start of the 2023 school year, schools have been giving compulsory courses on national defense. The business community is no exception either, as more and more companies begin a shift towards the defense industry.
“We could well be next”
The acute awareness of the Russian threat extends well beyond Tallinn circles. “If the Ukrainians stopped resisting, we could well be next. Ukraine acts as a sort of rampart and protects us from Russia,” Tiina Jaksman, a member of the Defense League and resident of Tartu, a medium-sized town in the south-east of the country, theorizes over a coffee. A speech echoing the voluntarism of the Estonian government, a leading figure in terms of support for Ukraine, granting it aid equivalent to 3.6% of its GDP.
Not far away, in a hall of the University of Tartu flooded with sunlight, people are busy: for almost two years, the place has turned into a workshop for making camouflage nets, all intended for the Ukrainian army . There, Estonians from Tartu and Ukrainian refugees cut out and then carefully thread scraps of fabric through the mesh of an old fishing net. The result ? A large canvas for the Ukrainian armed forces, crucial when it comes to concealing a position. “It saves lives,” explains Peeter Peetso, diehard volunteer, sandals on his feet, Ukraine crest on his chest.
At 72, the man with graying hair grimaces when talking about these five decades of dictatorship under the yoke of Moscow. A former dissident, he had taken part, in the prime of his life, in clandestine operations. At the price of his freedom: Peeter was imprisoned for two years in the regime’s jails. “Putin’s system is the same software as that of the USSR, under a different name,” slips the talkative retiree, who admits, with a smirk, having considered joining the Ukrainian forces the day after the invasion Russian, before his son dissuaded him. So, to overcome his feeling of helplessness, Peeter goes to the camouflage workshop every day. “In Ukraine, they are fighting for our freedom, and with their blood. If Ukraine were to lose the war, it could be fatal for Estonia. Of course, NATO would come to our aid, but it would take time before the allies arrived. »
The danger, however, is not imminent. The Russian offensive in Ukraine mobilizes all of Vladimir Putin’s resources. “Calm reigns like never before at the border,” attests Eve Kalmus, head of the border guard department of the Estonian police. The authorities are nonetheless on alert, faced with the destabilization maneuvers orchestrated by the Kremlin, which is already using migratory pressure against Finland and Poland. A fence along the land border with Russia, “equipped with electronic surveillance equipment,” is nearing completion, the official said.
War economy
But the possibility of a Ukrainian defeat is worrying, while the Kremlin is already switching to a war economy. In the space of two years, its production of artillery ammunition quadrupled. Russian propaganda, for its part, is increasing its provocations against the Baltic countries, accused of martyring its Russian-speaking minorities or of “fascism” for daring to demolish monuments inherited from the USSR. A wanted notice was even launched by Moscow against the Estonian Prime Minister, Kaja Kallas, in February.
On alert, Estonian intelligence services are warning that the presence of Russian troops on the Russian-Estonian border could double in the long term. A “possible conflict” could break out within the alliance “over the next decade”. And this, in the face of a Russia which will be equipped, by then, with a mass army of the Soviet type.” “Russia’s goal is to achieve military dominance in the Baltic Sea region,” the body further states in its annual report, published in January.
However, the Baltic countries can hardly stand alone against their Russian neighbor, which can, according to Tallinn, mobilize up to 1.5 million conscripts. At the Estonian Ministry of Defense, we are calling for a start from European allies. “The cost of the war in Ukraine or even that of our investments in defense may seem high, but it is nothing compared to the possibility of a real war within the Alliance”, underlines Duty Tuuli Duneton, Undersecretary of Defense in the government. “Today, an existential threat coming from Russia weighs on Europe, and we must equip ourselves with the means to face it. Otherwise, it will be too late,” says Mme Duneton from Tallinn, also recalling “the absolute urgency to provide ammunition” to kyiv, which is in difficulty.
What remains unknown is the possible re-election, in November, of the unpredictable Donald Trump, likely to cause an earthquake on the eastern flank of NATO. Would he go so far as to undermine American support for Europe? This prospect worries the capitals of the Old Continent.
Night falls on Tartu. A light appears through the window of an anonymous warehouse, on the corner of a wide, sleepy boulevard. The camouflage workshop continues its activities, this time in a different location. Inside, among the dozen volunteers, Annette Talpsep, in her late thirties, explains that she goes there “every week”. “It’s the least I can do,” she said. In my family, there is a long-standing distrust of Russia…” His grandfather was sent to the gulag.
There, in the middle of the happy hubbub, we also find the tireless Peeter, working with his damaged but agile hands. He approaches, before blurting out: “Rather die than live under occupation again.” »