“Energetic” and “resolute” response, sanctions “as he has never seen before”: Joe Biden, who is increasing the number of warnings to dissuade Vladimir Putin’s Russia from invading Ukraine, has several options that could prove painful for Moscow.
Talks for what to do?
The West accuse the Russians of having amassed tens of thousands of troops on the Ukrainian border and of considering a new “aggression” after the annexation of Crimea in 2014.
In this explosive context, the United States and the Europeans have accepted a series of talks next week with Russia, which has proposed agreements to limit NATO expansion to its doors.
US officials say they are ready to discuss the concerns of both sides – but they have also made it known that most of the Russian demands are inadmissible.
The 46th president in American history therefore seems little interested in a major agreement with the rival power: maintaining the dialogue aims more, for him, to prevent the crisis from degenerating while passing on his warnings.
“It is above all a question of putting relations back on the track of a more in-depth dialogue, of more effective diplomacy and communication, which will not lead to a definitive resolution of all the problems, but to a better management of these problems to prevent them from causing metastasis, ”summarizes Matthew Rojansky, director of the Kennan Institute in the Wilson Center think tank.
What possible sanctions?
Joe Biden said he directly threatened his Russian counterpart with “economic consequences like he has never seen before” if he decides to invade Ukraine.
The sanctions that are on the table, even if Washington has not detailed them, could prove very harsh for the Russian economy.
First, Westerners can put more people close to Vladimir Putin on their blacklists, depriving them of all access to their assets in America or Europe.
They can also “dry up” investments in Russia and exports to this country of Western technologies, warns the former US ambassador to Kiev William Taylor, vice-president of the United States Institute of Peace research center.
Finally, they leave the threat of a recourse to what is often qualified as a “nuclear option”: to cut Russia from Swift, an essential cog in world finance which allows banks to circulate money.
This approach can only be used as a last resort, because of its negative repercussions for the European and American economies. “But the big losers would be the Russians,” warns William Taylor.
The energy card is also brandished, since German diplomacy threatens not to authorize the entry into service of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline between Russia and Germany, dear to Moscow, in the event of further Russian escalation.
What military options?
Joe Biden has made it known that he has no intention of dragging the world’s leading power into a new conflict overseas.
But without going as far as direct involvement, the Americans warned that they would send more weapons to Ukraine in the event of a Russian attack, and could also equip local militias.
The United States can also provide its Ukrainian allies with intelligence, by increasing the number of overflights by reconnaissance planes.
Above all, the Biden administration said that in the event of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, it would respond favorably to requests for reinforcements – and therefore for the deployment of American troops – from NATO countries bordering Russia. (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland).
“This is exactly what Putin does not want. So if he decides to invade, he will have exactly what he does not want, ”insists William Taylor.
Will this be enough?
In the past, even severe sanctions have not convinced President Putin to go back, especially after the annexation of Crimea.
This is why, this time, Washington is trying to communicate clearly to the Kremlin what the Western reaction would be before it takes action.
According to Matthew Rojansky, “no one doubts that the United States can hurt Russia economically”. “The question is: is this enough to change Russia’s behavior? And history has taught us that the only chance it has to work is to formulate threats in advance, ”he said.
William Taylor agrees: Vladimir Poutine “should be dissuaded” from acting by all these threats. “But will it really be?” Only one man can answer this question ”.