Insights from recent federal election results reveal a significant desire for political change among Germans, with dissatisfaction towards the previous government at a record low. Despite the Union emerging as the largest opposition party, it struggled to capitalize on this sentiment. The AfD gained ground, attributed to various factors including migration concerns and shifting perceptions. Leadership controversies within the Union and the rising normalization of the AfD contribute to an evolving political landscape in Germany.
Federal Election 2025: Insights into the Results
What factors contributed to the success of the AfD? Why isn’t the Union capitalizing more on the dissolution of the traffic light coalition? Would the SPD have fared better with Pistorius at the helm? And what led to the unexpected outcomes for the Left? Recent surveys from infratest dimap shed light on these questions.
The desire for a political shift among Germans was evident in the recent federal election results. The deep dissatisfaction with the previous government is reflected in the fact that only 17 percent of the population expresses satisfaction with its performance, marking a record low.
Despite this, the largest opposition party struggles to take full advantage of the situation. The Union, projected to secure 28.6 percent of the votes by 8 PM, emerges as the dominant force. Although voters trust it the most to tackle key issues facing Germany, the party’s performance still falls short of expectations. This marks one of the worst results in the Union’s history, significantly better than the 24.2 percent seen in 2021 but a long way from the 41.5 percent achieved in 2013 under Angela Merkel.
What accounts for this paradox? Analysis of the surveys from infratest dimap suggests multiple factors: general uncertainty due to challenging circumstances, lingering effects from the Merkel era, missteps by the current CDU and CSU leadership, and rising competition from the right.
Public Perception of Responsibility
Numerous concerns currently weigh on the minds of Germans, including climate change, economic instability, and geopolitical tensions involving figures like Trump and Putin. Only twelve percent view the current situation with optimism, impacting the overall political climate. While 24 and 20 percent attribute the current issues to the traffic light coalition parties SPD and Greens, the Union is also seen as equally culpable by 21 percent of respondents.
A significant factor contributing to this sentiment is the influx of refugees into Germany, a topic where decisions made during Angela Merkel’s tenure continue to resonate. This has positioned the CDU closer to the center than its current stance. Perceptions of migration as a problem vary widely by party affiliation: nearly all AfD supporters view it as an issue, while Green supporters typically do not. Nonetheless, a majority of 54 percent across the political spectrum believe the Union bears the primary responsibility for the high number of refugees.
Union’s Strategy and Its Consequences
Friedrich Merz has recently adopted a migration-critical stance during the campaign, especially following incidents involving asylum seekers. The Union’s chancellor candidate acknowledged a historic first: a majority in the Bundestag could be achieved with AfD votes, a move many considered breaking a long-standing taboo. Merz’s intention was clear—he aimed to reclaim the migration narrative from the far-right AfD. But did this strategy pay off?
The data suggests otherwise. While 64 percent of Germans appreciate Merz’s outspoken stance against irregular migration, and 46 percent support the CDU’s course correction from the Merkel years, the controversial Bundestag vote did not translate into electoral gains. In the ongoing ‘Sunday question,’ the Union’s support has lingered between 30 and 33 percent, and the final election result fell below the 30 percent threshold.
Impact of Merz’s Controversial Tactics
Merz’s controversial strategy has exacerbated two significant concerns among the electorate. According to the worry monitor from infratest dimap, many Germans fear for the future of democracy and the rule of law in Germany, as well as instability in government following the election. Public demonstrations in response to the contentious Bundestag vote illustrate how Merz’s actions have heightened these fears, further evidenced by the unfavorable election outcome.
Internal Conflicts Within the Union
Returning to the Union’s internal dynamics, issues originating from Munich have likely hindered its electoral success. Despite CSU leader Markus Söder’s public endorsement of Merz, many voters remain skeptical. During the campaign, Söder made headlines with his hardline stance, ruling out a coalition with the Greens and claiming ministerial positions for his party, complicating coalition negotiations for Merz. Consequently, half of Germans, including a third of Union supporters, expect the CDU-CSU conflicts to burden the next government. Trust in Merz is lacking, as only 43 percent believe he is fit to lead as Chancellor.
The Rising Visibility of the AfD
The increasing competition from the right poses a significant challenge for the Union. Merz’s attempts to diminish AfD support through a tough migration stance have not succeeded. With 20.4 percent of the vote, the AfD stands as the second strongest party, maintaining its position in recent polling trends.
A key factor in this perception shift is the growing belief that the AfD has become a ‘normal’ party in the eyes of many Germans. Despite the Office for the Protection of the Constitution categorizing parts of the AfD as far-right, and the party’s adoption of terminology like ‘remigration’ that was once confined to extreme circles, this view persists.
AfD Voter Perceptions
Almost three-quarters of Germans contend that the AfD does not sufficiently distance itself from far-right ideologies. This sentiment is echoed even among AfD supporters, with 42 percent acknowledging this concern—a figure that has remained stable since the 2021 election.
More crucially, a new finding not previously surveyed by infratest dimap reveals that 84 percent of AfD voters now perceive their party as ‘centered politically rather than right-wing.’
Competence and Leadership within the AfD
The AfD’s positive reception can be attributed largely to its leading candidate, Alice Weidel. She has effectively positioned herself as the ‘bourgeois face’ of the AfD, particularly during televised debates leading up to the election. Even a controversial appearance with US billionaire Elon Musk, where she controversially interpreted Adolf Hitler’s ideology, seems to have had little effect on her party’s image among many voters.