(Paris) Turnaround in France. Faced with the clear victory of the National Rally in the European elections, President Emmanuel Macron announced on Sunday the dissolution of Parliament and called early legislative elections in less than a month. A very high-risk bet, which could lead to cohabitation and tumultuous years on the French political scene.
“This decision is serious, heavy, but above all it is an act of confidence”, underlined Mr. Macron during an address to the nation, affirming his “confidence […] in the ability of the French people to make the most just choice for themselves and for future generations.”
“This is an essential time for clarification. Let the sovereign people have their say…” he added.
The vote, scheduled for two rounds, must take place on June 30 and July 7. France could thus have a new government just a few weeks before the start of the Olympic Games in Paris which begin on July 26.
Presidential prerogative in the French Constitution, the dissolution announced by Mr. Macron is the 6e since 1958, the eighth in over 100 years. The most recent, decided by Jacques Chirac in 1997, saw the left win a majority of seats, giving rise to the appointment of the socialist Lionel Jospin to Matignon and to cohabitation.
Expected, but…
The European elections, where more than 360 million voters were called to the polls in 27 countries to nominate 720 deputies, took place from Thursday to Sunday in a climate weighed down by a gloomy economic situation and the war in Ukraine, with a rate participation at 51%.
In France, the polls had certainly predicted a large victory for the National Rally (RN). But with nearly 31.5% of the votes (and 30 seats out of the 81 allocated to France), Marine Le Pen’s party definitely struck a major blow, achieving its best score in a major election and contributing significantly decisive to the spectacular surge of the radical right in the European Parliament.
The “head of the list” of the Rally, Jordan Bardella, considered the runner-up to Mme Le Pen did not hesitate to underline the “scathing disavowal” of the Macronist party (Renaissance), whose list, led by Valérie Hayer, peaks at 14.5%, half as much as the National Rally.
Adding insult to injury, the 28-year-old politician took a presidential tone with his victory speech in Paris, beginning with “My dear compatriots” and adding “the French people have delivered their verdict.” The National Rally is “ready to exercise power”, affirmed Marine Le Pen, before an executive office with Mr. Bardella, in a format mimicking a council of ministers.
Risk big
It goes without saying that Emmanuel Macron is playing big by triggering these elections, the first round of which will take place in 20 days.
“It’s indeed a gamble,” summarizes political scientist Jean Petaux, comparing Emmanuel Macron to the traders who make “hits” on the stock market. “But he had never gone this far in this practice of Russian roulette. »
From a strategic point of view and from the art of political warfare, the surprise effect caused by his announcement could work in his favor, adds the expert. On the other hand, the National Rally is currently enjoying favorable dynamics.
The French presidential camp had already lost its absolute majority in the Assembly after Macron’s re-election to the Élysée in 2022, followed immediately by legislative elections which saw a historic breakthrough by the far right, with 89 deputies for the RN. A poll, published this winter, also gave a majority to the RN in the event of the dissolution of the Assembly. With this early election, the president therefore runs the risk – very real – of opening the door to his adversaries.
That said, Jean Petaux believes that all scenarios are possible.
First scenario: there is still no absolute majority and the Assembly remains ungovernable, whether the party in power is Renaissance or the National Rally.
Second scenario: the National Rally obtains an absolute majority and imposes its prime minister on Emmanuel Macron, who is forced to cohabit with the radical right for the next three years. A scenario which suggests much friction between the Élysée (residence of the President of the Republic) and Matignon (residence of the Prime Minister), where the agendas will no longer be compatible.
Third scenario: the left-wing parties have time to organize themselves as a bloc and obtain a relative majority. A plausible scenario, considering the more than satisfactory scores of the Socialist Party (14%), France Insoumise (10%) and the Greens (5%) in the European election, i.e. 29%, almost as much as the RN.
Astonishment and participation
One thing is certain, the participation rate will undoubtedly be much higher than in the legislative elections in June 2022, predicts Jean Petaux.
“The effect of astonishment and dramatization created by Macron will come into play. The fact that the RN is at the gates of power will create, I think, a fairly significant political shock. We will really be in a national election with a tension effect which will generate greater participation”, with significant impacts on the final result, concludes the political scientist.
Emmanuel Macron is due to go to ceremonies in the center of the country this Monday, but he also promised to speak this week to state the “orientation” that he believes is “just for the nation”. In the meantime, time is suspended in the National Assembly. “The entire program is canceled. It’s a bit of a blow. Nobody saw the blow coming,” slips a parliamentary source.
With Agence France-Presse
Who is Jordan Bardella?
PHOTO LEWIS JOLY, ASSOCIATED PRESS
Jordan Bardella, considered Marine’s heir apparent Le Pen, during a speech on Sunday
- Winner of the European elections, Jordan Bardella, 28 years old and of Italian ancestry, was raised by his mother in a working-class Parisian suburb.
- At the age of 15, he joined the National Rally (RN). In 2019, aged 24, he led the RN list in the European elections, which came first just ahead of that of the presidential majority.
- With his airs of first in class and ideal son-in-law, he quickly climbed the ranks of the party until he rose – interim – to its head, in 2021. He was elected president the following year, with 85% of the votes. .
- His presidency marked a first in the history of the far-right party: never before had it been led by anyone other than Le Pen. Marine thus turns her gaze towards the French presidential election of 2027.
- A convincing tribune driven by great ambition, Jordan Bardella prides himself, for example, on having more than a million subscribers on TikTok.
- Well known for his assertive anti-migratory positions, he notably advocates zero tolerance towards migrants who arrive in France irregularly and does not hesitate to evoke the theory of the “great replacement”.
- During the most recent European campaign, he focused above all on national themes, fueling criticism from his opponents about his disinterest in Europe.
- The rising star of the RN highlights his modest origins to appear close to the concerns of the French: purchasing power, immigration and insecurity, among others.
Bruno Marcotte, The Presswith Agence France-Presse