In his latest book France in the big world game published by Hermann, Pascal Lorot offers a reflection on the major geopolitical issues facing our country, with some concern for the Old Continent threatened, according to him, “to step out of history” faced with the rise of the Sino-American confrontation and because of its relative demographic depression. According to the president of the Choiseul Institute, a French think-tank dedicated to the analysis of major international issues, whether we like it or not, we will have to deal with an African continent that is close to us both geographically and by history.
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Some African countries are showing their ability to emerge economically while others are sinking into a multifaceted security, food and ecological crisis. How do you see the evolution of this continent?
Seen from France, but also from Europe, we tend to globalize our understanding of the continent. We always talk about Africa with a capital A. However, Africa is a gigantic continent of some 30 million square kilometres. We could put the United States, China, India, Japan, South Korea and the European Union at the same time. !
At just 4.1 million square kilometres, the EU 27 alone is seven times smaller than Africa. On this small geopolitical unit, the economic (growth, standard of living, etc.) and political situations are very diverse from one country to another. So let’s not be surprised that a multitude of situations also prevail in Africa, whether they relate to security, food, the environment or even logistics. From one country to another, from one sub-region or from one region to another, there may be reasons to be sometimes optimistic, sometimes pessimistic. Let us therefore not globalize an inventory that is by definition necessarily plural.
Despite the fragility of the African continent and the historical “litigation”, should France continue to bet on this continent and why ?
Africa is our neighbour. We share with it historical relations ; we have common interests. Even though the situation can sometimes be difficult, even complicated, even though this continent counts for little today in our foreign trade, France but also Europe can hardly do without Africa. The latter is a formidable reserve of natural and mining resources, essential to the economic activity of European industries.
It is also today a local base where to locate certain activities and industries. In this respect, the Covid crisis has been a real indicator of the dependence of France and Europe vis-à-vis Asia. The pandemic has highlighted the limits of excessive relocation to this region of the globe. To regain their strategic autonomy, Europeans now have no choice but to relocate their companies to Europe and its periphery, where labor is available and at a more affordable cost. Africa naturally has its place in this strategy. Europe and Africa have a lot to offer each other, their complementarity is a source of wealth.
On February 17 and 18, an EU-AU summit will be held. A young and poor continent facing a rich and aging continent. What do you think is the future of this relationship ?
The future is complementary! As we have said, Africa has the resources that Europe needs. Natural resources, of course, but also and above all human resources. Human capital is a key factor in development and growth and Africa is an almost limitless reservoir of it. Aging Europe will need this new blood to maintain its ability to innovate and think up new models. It must therefore focus on the training of young Africans, at home of course by promoting scholarships and offering easy access to its higher education centers, but also by helping to strengthen general and specialized educational infrastructure in Africa.
If it wants to achieve its sovereignty in economic and industrial matters, as it now proclaims, Europe must also absolutely redistribute its strategic productive system. And what better local geographical space in which to reinvest part of its productive capacities, in particular those requiring recourse to an abundant workforce, if not in its African neighbor? ? It is clearly in Europe’s interest to redirect subcontracting centers now and to promote the emergence in Africa of centers with a strong technological impact in the future.
What is more, by creating wealth on the spot, by setting up real value chains there, it will offer jobs and secure a number of talents in Africa, this last point of employment being a real challenge for African countries confronted with the massive influx of young people into the labor market. An African but also European challenge !
You announce “a large-scale migratory encounter between Africa and Europe” in the decades to come. How to have a lucid and peaceful debate on these migration issues when France will need to attract new talents ?
One of the great challenges that the Old Continent will have to face is linked to the African demographic boom. Today, the European Union has around 450 million inhabitants (more than 500 million if we include the United Kingdom), Africa 1.3 billion. In 2050, the number of Europeans will have stagnated or declined while the African population will have almost doubled (2.5 billion), with two thirds of individuals under the age of thirty who will not necessarily find a job on the labor market. of their country. In fact, the big question that prevails is how many millions of Africans will migrate to the northern shores of the Mediterranean. In Western societies that are already struggling to assimilate or integrate immigrants and their descendants, it is certain that this influx of population will pose immense difficulties.
In this light, the search for a consensus between European nations on the policies to be implemented to respond to these future migratory flows and the strengthening of our relations with African countries must be considered absolute priorities for the coming years.
At a time of strategic doubts in Mali and the Sahel, should France stay in the region? ?
To withdraw would mean the victory of jihadists in the Sahelian strip and the destabilization of all of West Africa. Make no mistake about it, the Islamist terrorist movements are in a logic of conquest that only the armed force, supporting a real policy of fight against the endemic misery which prevails in certain zones of this region, can contain. On the other hand, redeploying the Franco-European military system to take into account the illegitimacy of Malian power and its hostile posture to French interests seems unavoidable, and probably even in the short term.
Russia pushes its pawns in Africa, especially where France is in difficulty. But do you think it is a mistake to consider Russia as a threat?
Economically, competition in the African market is fierce. The Europeans are of course present, but now we also have to reckon with China and also a multitude of new players, Turkish, North American, Brazilian, Indian, Japanese… Russia is now making a strong comeback in Africa after three decades of a decline following the disappearance of the Soviet Union. However, it is only one actor among others on the African chessboard. Despite the launch of the Africa-Russia summit in Sochi in 2019 and despite the thundering announcements, very little has been achieved in terms of economic cooperation. Russia remains confined in Africa to two main sectors : weapons and raw materials with, incidentally, a still timid breakthrough in the agri-food sector (agricultural machinery, cereals). This is very little compared to the multiple and varied needs of African countries.
In the commercial and financial field, Russia is ultimately in Africa neither more nor less than a competitor like any other. Where the dispute lies, on the other hand, concerns the political field with the presence of Wagner militias or even official cooperation in the fields of security and defense in a growing number of countries. This presence strains relations with Russia, as the West is no longer used to seeing this country in what is in fact a European zone of influence – especially since the global geopolitical context (Ukraine, Syria, etc. .) is hardly favorable either. But I do not believe that there is a Russian will to come and challenge France in its former pre-square. Rather, Moscow acts opportunistically and pushes its pawns where “good” opportunities present themselves. These are found in the former zone of French influence (Central Africa, Mali, etc.) but also outside, such as in Sudan or Libya.