(Nairobi) With thousands dead, two million displaced and fears of a rebel march on Addis Ababa, the war in Ethiopia poses the threat of large-scale destabilization, with potential repercussions throughout Africa from the east.
The situation worries Ethiopia’s neighboring countries and the international community, all of which have been working to end the year-long conflict between government forces and rebels in the northern region of Tigray.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Friday warned that failure to hold talks “would lead to Ethiopia’s implosion and spill over to other countries in the region.”
Blinken is due Tuesday in Kenya, one of Ethiopia’s many neighbors, worried about an influx of refugees caused by the war.
Tens of thousands of people have already fled west to Sudan, straining relations between the two nations, already poisoned in particular by the Ethiopian Renaissance Grand Dam (GERD) project on the Nile.
In August, Khartoum recalled its ambassador to Ethiopia after Abiy Ahmed’s government rejected a Sudanese mediation proposal.
Bordering Ethiopia to the south, Kenya announced this month that it is stepping up security along the border. Police have asked residents to report any illegal immigration.
For decades, northern Kenya has hosted refugee camps, mostly Somali, among the most populous in the world, housing a total of more than 400,000 people.
Fears in Djibouti
Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta, very involved in regional mediation efforts and who visited Ethiopia on Sunday, urged the belligerents in early November to lay down their arms.
But “no one can do it for them. No intervention or persuasion will work if they do not themselves have the political will to end this crisis, ”he said.
The war began in November 2020 when Abiy Ahmed sent the army to remove regional authorities from the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), who challenged his authority and accused him of attacking military bases. Ethiopian forces have received support from troops from neighboring Eritrea.
Abiy Ahmed declared victory on November 28, but TPLF fighters recaptured most of Tigray in June, then advanced into neighboring Afar and Amhara regions.
Allied to an armed group of the Oromo ethnic group (OLA), they have claimed since the end of October for strategic territorial gains in these two regions, without ruling out marching on the capital Addis Ababa.
Bordering Ethiopia in the east, Djibouti is closely monitoring the development of the conflict, especially after deadly clashes that occurred in August and described as “community” by the authorities of this country mainly populated by Issa and Afar. Afar territory straddles Djibouti, Ethiopia and Eritrea.
Djiboutian Prime Minister Abdoulkader Mohamed Kamil went to the Afar zone of his country in early November to meet the inhabitants and defuse any discontent that could lead to further violence.
“Domino effect”
The African Union (AU), headquartered in Addis Ababa, has stepped up efforts to end the fighting, through its envoy for the Horn of Africa, former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo .
This conflict threatens the whole region, because it “affects the ability of regional organizations to focus on other important areas, such as security,” Hassan Khannenje, director of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, told AFP. the Horn, a think tank based in Nairobi.
“There is very little attention to the threat posed by terrorist organizations, such as the shebab (Somali radical Islamists, editor’s note), and this has allowed some recruitment and radicalization from the Congo to Cabo Delgado”, in northern Mozambique, he said.
According to him, Ethiopia’s decision to withdraw certain peacekeeping units in Somalia to assign them to the conflict in Tigray reinforces the security risks in the most unstable country in the Horn of Africa.
At the end of October, Uganda, bordering the Democratic Republic of the Congo, was the scene of bomb attacks claimed by the Islamic State in Central Africa group (Iscap).
If the rebels succeed in bringing down Abiy Ahmed, the long-term implications could be even more dangerous, he adds, warning of a “domino effect” that could see other groups attempt to topple governments of the United States. region.