(Istanbul) Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan gathers his unconditional supporters on Friday two days before a presidential election which promises to be the most difficult for him after two decades in power.
It was in a historically conservative district of Istanbul that the head of state, a child of the city, first addressed his constituents in the afternoon before inaugurating a mosque, yet another after the thousands already erected during his reign.
During this meetinghe warned of “a heavy price to pay” in the event of victory for the opposition, a six-party alliance “driven by revenge”, he accused.
The polls give his main rival Kemal Kiliçdaroglu, president of the Republican People’s Party (CHP, social democrat) and leader of the opposition, a slight lead for the presidential election on Sunday.
The withdrawal on Thursday of one of the four candidates, Muharrem Ince, should play in his favour, observers believe. If no candidate collects more than 50% of the vote, the first two will face each other in a second round on May 28.
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has seen his popularity undermined by the economic crisis which is hitting the country of 85 million inhabitants, was unusually reserved on Thursday evening regarding the results.
“The polls will tell us on Sunday,” he replied to a journalist who asked him about his possible victory.
Mr Erdogan, 69, also admitted to having trouble convincing young people, 5.2 million of whom will be voting for the first time, and who did not experience the 1990s and, as he says, chaos and corruption that marked the coalition governments.
“There is a generation in our country that has not experienced any of the worries we have suffered,” he summed up during an intervention this week.
Loss of support
“We struggle to explain our values to this new generation. Because our young people do not compare with the old Turkey, but with countries that have much better conditions,” he said on Friday.
The Turkish president thus admitted that he might not win the votes of a young electorate who aspires to a better life.
In recent years, Mr. Erdogan has lost the support of key segments of the population who rallied to his cause at the start of his term in 2003 marked by a more prosperous Turkey.
According to polls, more than half of young people prefer to vote for his rival.
As for the Kurds, who had applauded his efforts at democratization during his early years, today they would mostly support Kemal Kiliçdaroglu.
The severe economic crisis – Turkey’s worst in a quarter century and attributed by many observers to Erdogan’s unorthodox economic beliefs – has also eroded other groups’ trust in his government.
Rallying his most unconditional nationalist and religious supporters so that they do not fail to go to the polls is therefore essential today for the head of the Islamic-conservative state.
fight for democracy
Observers say the democratic future of NATO’s largest Muslim-majority country hangs in the balance on Sunday.
“Either Erdogan will lose, giving Turkey a chance to restore democracy, or he will win and likely stay in power for the rest of his life,” said Soner Cagaptay, senior fellow at the Washington Institute.
Faced with the dissatisfaction of part of society, Kemal Kiliçdaroglu built his campaign on positive messages, dodging Mr. Erdogan’s personal attacks to focus on promises to restore economic order and freedoms.
He has also surrounded himself with economists who are trusted by Western investors, as well as former allies of Mr. Erdogan to also target a nationalist and conservative electorate.
Mr. Kiliçdaroglu also denounced Russian electoral interference on Thursday – an accusation “firmly” denied on Friday by the Kremlin.
Return to the parliamentary system
The leader of the opposition also presented as a priority the return to a parliamentary system, in order to close the chapter of a presidency that has become omnipotent since the constitutional change of 2017.
This would force the opposition to win the legislative elections also held on Sunday. However, on this point, the polls give a head start to the conservative alliance of Mr. Erdogan on the opposition bloc.
But the opposition could still have a majority in parliament thanks to the support of an alliance made up of the main pro-Kurdish party and left-wing parties.