Since the attack by Hamas militants on Israel on October 7, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has been careful not to deviate from the American position on the conflict, which threatens to spread to other countries in the Middle East.
His refusal to call for a ceasefire created turmoil within the Liberal caucus. No fewer than 23 Liberal MPs signed a letter asking that Canada “join the growing number of countries calling for an immediate ceasefire.” Mr. Trudeau responded to them this week by saying he was in favor of “the idea of humanitarian pauses,” which would allow the delivery of aid to civilians trapped in Gaza while not preventing Israel from resuming its assault on Palestinian territory. with the aim of eliminating Hamas.
His statement on Tuesday came almost simultaneously with that of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. Before the United Nations in New York, he also called for humanitarian pauses.
Since coming to power in 2015, Mr. Trudeau’s government seems to develop its foreign policy according to the desires of ethnic clienteles in certain key constituencies, notably the suburbs of Toronto and Vancouver. In many cases, his positions do not attract public attention outside of these ethnic enclaves, where the support — or not — of the Sikh, Tamil, Chinese or other population can change everything between victory and defeat. Liberals in federal elections.
Since their words and actions do not carry much weight on the international stage, Canadian governments, with rare exceptions, have traditionally all had the luxury of viewing their foreign policy as a vote-winning contraption. However, this approach has backfired twice in the past year against the Trudeau government.
He has long sought to downplay allegations of Chinese interference in the 2019 federal election so as not to alienate Chinese voters in the swing ridings of Toronto and Vancouver. But this scandal ended up blowing up in his face, with revelations in the media of repeated warnings about Chinese interference allegedly issued to him by the Canadian Security Intelligence Service.
We are entitled to wonder whether Mr. Trudeau would have made such a dramatic outing to announce that India would be involved in the assassination of a Sikh separatist activist committed in the suburbs of Vancouver last June if he was not concerned as much for the fate of the Liberals in constituencies where the Sikh population is in the majority or almost. The Indian government’s reaction to his comments now threatens Canada’s relations with the country that all our allies seek to court to counter Chinese influence in the world.
On the issue of the conflict between Israel and Hamas, Mr. Trudeau, unlike some of his deputies, cannot contradict our allies without them realizing it. As with the war in Ukraine, the stakes in this conflict are too high for the Prime Minister to dare go against the grain.
Certainly, divisions also exist within the Western alliance itself, as evidenced by the difficulty that the countries of the European Union have in agreeing on a common position. Only Spain’s prime minister, the socialist Pedro Sánchez, who is fighting for his political survival after losing elections in July, has so far publicly demanded a ceasefire. But, in his case, any other position would break up the coalition of left-wing parties that he is trying to preserve in order to keep power and avoid the holding of elections, which could lead to his definitive defeat.
US President Joe Biden is not ready to call for a ceasefire, even though he says he deplores the consequences of Israel’s military actions against Hamas for the population of Gaza and is campaigning for an acceleration in the delivery of humanitarian aid. First, because he knows that Hamas, a terrorist group dedicated to the destruction of Israel, would never meet his terms. Second, because any leniency towards this organization would be seen as an invitation for the enemies of the United States, starting with Iran, to sow terror across the region and the world.
At most, Mr. Biden is asking Israel to exercise a certain caution in waging its campaign against Hamas. He knows full well that this situation is a geopolitical quagmire that threatens to undermine his presidency and lead to multiple military conflagrations elsewhere in the Middle East and around the world. The last thing he needs is to see a Canadian government keen to please public opinion make his already delicate task even more difficult. Mr. Trudeau seems to have understood this.
Based in Montreal, Konrad Yakabuski is a columnist at Globe and Mail.