Confident in the recovery, workers increasingly consider the possibility of voluntarily leaving their job to find better somewhere else, to change sector of activity. They are also thinking of increasing their spending by drawing on their savings.
Almost one in five Canadians believe it is likely that they will voluntarily quit their job within the next year, the Bank of Canada reported on Monday, releasing the results of its most recent quarterly survey of consumer expectations. Comparable to the peak reached just before the COVID-19 pandemic hit, this proportion is notably attributable to the many respondents who indicated that they were looking for a better work schedule, more interesting career opportunities and a higher salary. It is accompanied by a gradual drop in those who fear losing their jobs over the next 12 months (to 12%).
A good number of Canadians, including just over a third of job seekers and half of the unemployed, say they want to find a job in another industry than the one in which they are currently working. “Workers in sectors that are less well paid or that have been severely affected by the pandemic, such as leisure and culture, are more likely to change sector,” note the authors of the survey carried out during the second half of the month. August “as the Delta variant began to spread across the country.”
This new wave of the pandemic has somewhat delayed consumers’ desire to spend. However, they still expect that the increase in their spending will be almost twice as fast over the next year (3.74%) as the growth in their income (2.09%).
These two seemingly hard-to-reconcile trends may be explained by the fact that over 40% of survey respondents report saving more than usual during the pandemic – often because opportunities to spend arose. quite simply rarer. However, those who have accumulated savings report that they have already spent about 10% of that extra savings this year and will likely spend another third by the end of next year.
Companies are looking for workers
Equally confident in the recovery, companies admit, however, “in an abnormally high proportion”, that they would have “some difficulties” (39%), or even “serious difficulties” (26%), in responding to an unexpected increase. demand or their sales, found the Bank of Canada in another survey, conducted this one among businesses between August 20 and September 16.
For almost half of them (46%), one of the main sources of the problem is the disruption of supply chains caused by the pandemic. This is particularly the case in the manufacturing sector.
But there is even more problematic: the labor shortages mentioned by more than four in five respondents (81%) and which seven in ten expect to see worsen over the next year. Unsurprisingly, “hiring intentions remain at record levels”, and more than half of companies expect to pay more for their employees.
A majority also intend to increase their investments, especially in digital technologies that can improve productivity. As many other costs have also had to be faced, companies warn that they will be unable to help but pass a large part of the bill on to consumers.
Inflationary fever spurt
In this context, consumers and businesses expect prices to rise more sharply than before the pandemic, at least in the short term. Almost half of businesses (45%) prepare for inflation to exceed the upper limit of the long-term target range set by the Bank of Canada, i.e. between 1% and 3%.
Consumers, too, expect the cost of living to rise to more than 3% over the next year, before slowing down to more than 3% in two and five years.
We therefore anticipate, on both sides, “temporarily higher” inflation, but longer-term expectations unchanged, notes the Bank of Canada in its two surveys, for which these two elements are precisely the main one. goal.