Early legislative elections have been the sword of Damocles hanging over parliament since June. A weapon available to Emmanuel Macron in case the Assembly is blocked.
What is interesting is that no one, not even probably Emmanuel Macron, really wants a dissolution. However, this idea was greeted yesterday with bravado statements: “Chick”launched Marine Le Pen when Jean-Luc Mélenchon spoke of a “opportunity”. Obviously none of this is true…
Consider for a moment the current political situation. Emmanuel Macron is he certain to have more deputies after a new legislative election? not sure… Jean-Luc Mélenchon boasts but Nupes is in difficulty. The union of the left exists but would it emerge as strong and more numerous when it is torn on the merits as on business? The LR right, in the midst of the campaign for its presidency, is still seeking its position. As for the RN, does Marine Le Pen really want to take the risk of bringing into play her historic score of 89 deputies?
The RN is in a consolidation phase but sometimes in politics the best is the enemy of the good. Know that at the National Rally, some are even worried about a scenario where the RN would become the majority. “If the opportunity arises, Marine will assume, she will go to Matignon”, explains one of her relatives but this member of the first circle immediately tempers: “The trap would be that she finds herself Prime Minister and that Macron wrings it out for months.” A cohabitation, faced with the reality of the difficulties of governing, is for Marine Le Pen to take the risk of burning her wings and being discredited for the Elysée in 2027.
To speak again of dissolution for Emmanuel Macron is a stroke of pressure. A way to show that he is the boss but it is also a sign of feverishness.
Dissolution is a threat to be used with care. In 1997, Jacques CHirac attempted a political coup. He dissolves the Assembly thinking to regain control to make unpopular reforms. The president, on the right, thinks the left divided. Result: the socialist Lionel Jospin arrives at Matignon… A textbook case of failed dissolution. It is therefore a weapon whose effects we do not always control.