franceinfo would like to remind you that a poll is not a prediction, but a snapshot of public opinion at a given moment. A survey is necessarily accompanied by a margin of error, also called “margin of uncertainty” or “confidence interval”. The smaller the sample, the greater the margin of error. For more details, here is everything you need to know to decipher the polls.
Emmanuel Macron wins a point over his rival Marine Le Pen, according to our daily Ipsos-Sopra Steria survey for franceinfo and Le Parisien-Today in France, published Thursday, April 21 the day after the debate between the two rounds. Three days before the second round of the 2022 presidential election, Emmanuel Macron is now credited with 57.5% of voting intentions in the second round, against 42.5% for Marine Le Pen (margin of error: 3.3 points).
For this new wave, the entire sample was questioned the day after the debate between the two contenders for the Elysée. And after this face-to-face between the two rounds, 43% of those polled believe that it was rather Emmanuel Macron who was the most convincing. 24% believe that it is Marine Le Pen and 33% believe that they were as much one as the other.
It is unsurprising among their voters in the first round that the two candidates who were debating convinced the most: 85% of Emmanuel Macron’s voters in the first round found him convincing. It is less marked among those of Marine Le Pen: 65% believe that she was the most convincing, 8% that it was Emmanuel Macron, and 27% send them back to back.
Among Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s voters in the first round, 43% believe that Emmanuel Macron was rather the most convincing, 14% that it was Marine Le Pen, and 43% believe that they were as much one as the other. Same pattern or almost on the right, among the voters of Valérie Pécresse: 43% were convinced by Emmanuel Macron, 9% by Marine Le Pen, and 48% by neither. As for the voters of Eric Zemmour, it is Marine Le Pen who comes out on top with 47%, against 22% for Emmanuel Macron and 31% neither. Finally, voters of Yannick Jadot in the first round designate 51% of Emmanuel Macron as the most convincing during the debate, and 42% believe that neither was.
At this stage, theevolution of vote transfers benefits Emmanuel Macron. Among Yannick Jadot’s voters, 65% now intend to vote for him (+6 points). Among those of Valérie Pécresse, the postponement is even more marked with 49% of intentions (+9 points). And it is also progressing among Eric Zemmour’s voters, who are now 11% to refer to the outgoing president (+4 points).
It is only among the voters of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who came third in the first round, that the vote transfers to Emmanuel Macron are down: 34%, against 39% during the last wave. From now on, 48% (+4 points) opt for abstention, blank or null vote, or do not wish to answer.
While it is still early to definitively measure the effect of the debate, the day after the face-to-face between the two candidates there is little progress in reports to Marine Le Pen. They thus pass from 17% to 18% among the voters of Jean-Luc Mélenchon. And they are down among the others: only 5% of Yannick Jadot’s voters now opt for the RN candidate; on the right and on the extreme right, they go from 25% to 13% among those of Valérie Pécresse and from 78 to 72% among those of Eric Zemmour.
Four days before the second round of voting, 73% of French people questioned are sure that they will vote (range: between 71 and 75%). A figure which is increasing but which is still slightly lower than the effective participation rate during the second round of the 2017 presidential election (74.6%).
With the approach of the vote, the choices become firmer, even if 14% of the people certain to go to vote still do not express any intention to vote. And of those voters who are certain to vote, 89% say they have made their choice and that it will be final, while 11% believe that their vote can still change. The voters of Emmanuel Macron are less and less numerous to doubt: 95% (+2 points) affirm that their choice is final, only 5% recognize that they can still change their mind. Same progression for Marine Le Pen: the convinced are 92% (+2 points), the undecided are 8%.
Among those who intend to travel on April 24 to vote blank or null, 58% say they are sure of their choice (+3 points), and 42% of them say they can still change their minds.
Methodology. This Ipsos-Sopra Steria survey for franceinfo and Le Parisien-Today in France is based on a total sample of 1,600 people registered on the electoral lists, constituting a representative sample of the French population aged 18 and over, questioned on April 21, 2022. The sample was questioned by internet and was made up according to the quota method (sex, age, profession of the person questioned, category of agglomeration, region).