The pale blue may have swept the regions of Quebec, the CAQ is still breaking its teeth on the hard core of large urban centers. The heart of Sherbrooke and Quebec again escapes the party of François Legault, just like the island of Montreal, where the CAQ remains on the sidelines, with only two constituencies.
The CAQ tidal wave swept over all the regions and suburbs of the province, except in seven ridings (Pontiac, Vaudreuil, Chomedey, Mille-Îles, La Pinière, Matane-Matapédia and Îles-de-la- Magdalene). The metropolis and – to a lesser extent – the national capital are resisting this hegemony for a second election in a row. The next government will only have two elected representatives from Montreal in its caucus: Chantal Rouleau (Pointe-aux-Trembles) and Karine Boivin-Roy (Anjou–Louis-Riel). The Liberals, Solidarity and PQ leader Paul St-Pierre-Plamondon share the other 25 seats assigned to the island.
“The CAQ proves once again that it is possible to govern without Montreal,” observes Daniel Béland, professor in the department of political science at McGill University. “It’s quite a contrast with the Liberal years, when the elected representatives of the metropolis occupied a central place at the table of ministers. »
The population of the island of Montreal added to those of downtown Quebec and Sherbrooke totals more than two million people. It is therefore a quarter of Quebec that will be represented by a party other than the CAQ in the Blue Room.
City centers unfavorable to the CAQ
Town centers concentrate a cosmopolitan, young and educated population that is not the electoral bread and butter of the CAQ. Its base is located in the suburbs, “where it pays off,” notes Catherine Côté, professor at the School of Applied Politics at the University of Sherbrooke. “The CAQ targets small families and older people, that is to say the voters most likely to vote,” she observes. “Where are they mostly located? In the suburbs. »
The themes hammered out by the CAQ throughout the campaign have also shown that it courted the regions more than the major centers, analyzes Professor Côté. Nationalist appeals resonate more in the regions than in the city, according to her, because the electorate attaches greater importance to this issue.
“These voters are very rooted in their city, in their community and in their region,” said Ms.me Côté, “unlike the population of large cities who see themselves more as citizens of the world and who adhere more to principles and ideas than to their regional affiliation”.
The Prime Minister even pitted urban centers against the rest of the province during the campaign, in particular inviting Montrealers to “stop looking down on Quebec and the people of Rouyn-Noranda” in controversial issues such as the third link or the pollution emitted by the Horne smelter.
The only Montreal ridings where the CAQ manages to set foot, observes Daniel Béland, have moreover the appearance of “suburbs on the island”. This is particularly the case of Pointe-aux-Trembles, located at the eastern end of Montreal and with a large contingent of French-speaking voters favorable to the CAQ.
Opposition from mayors
If Montreal remains loyal to Québec solidaire and the Liberal Party, it is because of the large number of Anglophones and allophones, on the one hand, and the presence of several university campuses, on the other. “A younger and more educated electorate votes more for QS”, analyzes Catherine Côté. “It’s a bit the same phenomenon that is reproduced in Sherbrooke and Quebec, where a large student presence promotes solidarity. »
However, there is a danger, according to the professor at the School of Applied Politics at the University of Sherbrooke, that the CAQ governs with such weak representation in Montreal. “What worries me is that the issues that concern Montrealers will be neglected by the next government,” she said. The metropolis sees the French declining, its congestion increasing and its affordable housing becoming scarce. The CAQ, she insists, will have to be particularly sensitive to these problems, which are not specific to Montreal.
Professor Daniel Béland expects the new wave of mayors to play an increased role on the provincial political spectrum. “We have already seen tensions between the big cities and the government under the first mandate of the CAQ. In my opinion, it can only increase, even if the cities try to be diplomatic. There is a paradigm shift in the big cities of Quebec,” adds the McGill professor. “Mayors are green and environmentalist. The government is accused of not doing enough in this regard. »
A collision is already announced between the mayor of Quebec and the cabinet of François Legault in the file of the third link. ” [Ce dernier] has become the symbol of the pro-suburban and pro-automotive vision of the CAQ,” observes Daniel Béland. The mayor of Quebec never supported the project. The Prime Minister, for his part, promises that he will go ahead, regardless of the studies or the consent of Bruno Marchand.