Elections in Israel | Benyamin Netanyahu is getting closer to power

(Jerusalem) In the aftermath of the legislative elections that placed his party in the lead, former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seems to be getting closer to victory on Wednesday thanks to the far right, even if the final results could change the situation.

“Netanyahu seeks decisive victory, Lapid hopes for equality, Ben Gvir celebrates victory”, headlines the Yediot Aharonotthe best-selling newspaper in the Israeli press.

As of 10:45 a.m. (0845 GMT), about 84 percent of the ballots had been counted, the election commission said. According to its partial results, the Likud (right) of Mr Netanyahu won 31 seats, ahead of the centrist party Yesh Atid (“There is a future”) of outgoing Prime Minister Yair Lapid which won 24 seats, out of the 120 in the Parliament.

The far-right allies of Mr. Netanyahu, Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir, came third with 14 seats, double the seats they had until then.

The centre-right party of ex-army chief Benny Gantz, a member of the outgoing coalition and winning 12 seats, follows.

With its allies, Mr. Netanyahu’s bloc would have 65 seats, four more than the majority. But these scores could change when the official results are announced, in particular depending on the seats won by the smaller parties.

“We are on hot coals, it could take a few thousand votes” to change the situation, analyzes Yael Shomer, professor at Tel Aviv University, while two lists – an Arab party and the left formation Meretz – flirt with the eligibility threshold.

The election took place against a backdrop of renewed violence in the West Bank, Palestinian territory occupied since 1967 by Israel. On Wednesday, the Israeli army killed a Palestinian who seriously injured a soldier in a vehicular attack at a checkpoint.

“Right-wing revolution”

Tried for corruption and the most durable of the heads of government in the history of Israel, Mr. Netanyahu, 73, lost power in June 2021 to the benefit of a motley coalition set up by Yair Lapid.

“I have experience, I have done a few elections, we have to wait for the final results but our path, that of Likud, has proven to be the right one, we are close to a big victory,” he said. launched in the night Mr. Netanyahu to his supporters gathered in Jerusalem.

His rival Mr. Lapid also said that “as long as the last ballot is not counted, nothing is decided”.

But already, a former Likud member, the current Minister of Justice Gideon Saar, has warned of the risk of seeing Israel heading towards a “coalition of extremists” led by Mr. Netanyahu and his allies.

“The time has come for a full-fledged right-wing government. The time has come to be the masters […] in our country ! “said Mr. Ben Gvir on Wednesday, who also reiterated his call for the use of force, especially against Palestinians.

“Israel is about to begin a right-wing, religious and authoritarian revolution, the goal of which is to destroy the democratic infrastructure on which the country was built,” the major left-wing daily Haaretz said on Wednesday. “This could be a dark day in Israel’s history.”

Reaching the 3.25% threshold

For these fifth legislative elections in the space of three and a half years, the political class feared a “fatigue” of the 6.8 million registered voters. The opposite happened, with a turnout of 71.3%, the highest since 2015, according to the electoral commission.

In the Israeli proportional system, an electoral list must obtain at least 3.25% of the votes to enter Parliament with a minimum of four seats.

The situation is particularly critical for the parties of the large Israeli Arab minority, descendants of the Palestinians who remained on their land when Israel was created in 1948.

In 2020, the Arab parties, hostile to the right-wing bloc of Mr. Netanyahu, had won a record 15 seats after a campaign under a single banner.

But this time they presented themselves in dispersed order under three lists, Raam (moderate Islamist), Hadash-Taal (secular) and Balad (nationalist), and if some do not reach the eligibility threshold, it would increase the chances of Mr Netanyahu to get back to business.

“The results show that Netanyahu has the best chance of forming a government, with fascists on his side,” said Aïda Touma-Suleiman, deputy of Hadash-Taal. “And that concerns us greatly […] because it speaks to the direction this country is heading and what awaits the Palestinians living in this country. »