If the trend continues, the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) would collect barely 11 seats in the next elections, far behind the Parti Québécois (PQ), which would form a majority government.
The QC125 site, which compiles polling data to make electoral projections, predicts the worst result for the CAQ since the party was formed in 2011.
If the elections took place today, François Legault’s troops would win barely 11 seats, compared to 90 during the last election.
For his part, PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon would be elected at the head of a majority government. His party would win 69 ridings, far ahead of the Liberal Party of Quebec (PLQ), which remained the official opposition with 26 seats.
PHOTO EDOUARD PLANTE-FRÉCHETTE, LA PRESSE ARCHIVES
The leader of the Parti Québécois, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon
Québec solidaire (QS) would follow with 14 deputies, while the Conservative Party of Quebec (PCQ) would win five ridings.
In terms of voting intention, the PQ also maintains a good lead with 33% of support, compared to 23% for the CAQ. QS comes third with 17%, followed by the PLQ with 15% and the PCQ with 11%.
In the space of a year, support for the CAQ has melted by almost half, the result of a series of controversies – historic strike in education, return of the third Quebec-Lévis road link, subsidy for the arrival of the Kings from Los Angeles to the Videotron center.
During the same period, the PQ observed the opposite curve. Their support has continued to increase, quickly surpassing the Solidarity and Liberals, who are stagnating in the polls.
The next election is scheduled for October 2026.