Election Day in Alberta | The province torn between two parties

(Edmonton and Calgary) Albertans will go to the polls on Monday to choose whether the United Conservatives or the New Democrats will form their next government. Outgoing Prime Minister Danielle Smith and her rival, Rachel Notley, have fought hard throughout the election campaign, but they remain neck and neck. The only certainty after the election is that a woman will lead the province.

“On this point, Alberta is more progressive because this is not the first time that two women have faced off for power,” notes Frédéric Boily, professor of political science at the Saint-Jean campus in the University of Alberta. He had studied the image of female candidates during the 2012 campaign, which pitted Progressive Conservative Allison Redford against Danielle Smith, who was then leader of the Wildrose Party.

Over the past ten years, three premiers have led Alberta’s government: Allison Redford – who broke the glass ceiling in 2012 – New Democrat Rachel Notley in 2015 and conservative Danielle Smith, who became party leader in October. United Conservative of Alberta (UCP).

The PCU, resolutely camped on the right, campaigned on the economy, the creation of jobs and the reduction of the tax burden. Danielle Smith notably promises to reduce taxes by $760 for all taxpayers and to pass a law so that any future increase will be subject to a referendum.

The New Democratic Party (NDP) is putting forward proposals to reduce the cost of living and resolve the crisis that is shaking the health care system. Rachel Notley is proposing to raise corporate income tax from 8% to 11% to generate more revenue for government coffers.

Voters torn

“It’s a very difficult choice,” admits Palwinder Jassal, a trucker met on Saturday when he had just left an advance polling station in the riding of Edmonton Southwest, where the vote is likely to be to be tight. “I changed my mind two or three times, but I decided to vote for the NDP. Let’s give them a chance. »

“My family is definitely divided, whether they live in Edmonton or Calgary,” said Maxine Moleschi, a 66-year-old retiree who has always voted Conservative. “I’m going to vote NDP for the first time,” she added with a laugh. Rachel Notley is pragmatic. »

Voters went to the polls in droves during the advance poll, which lasted five days last week. Elections Alberta reports that 758,550 people have already made their choice, a record.

The province has nearly 2.8 million people of voting age.

A high turnout is likely to make all the difference in the tightest constituencies. During the last ballot, in 2019, almost the entire electoral map was painted dark blue. The NDP, which then formed the government, only managed to retain 24 seats, most of them in the capital. The Legislative Assembly has 87 in all.

Rhiannon Hoyle is running for New Democrats in suburban Edmonton South, where homes are springing up like mushrooms. She hopes to become the first woman of African descent to be elected to the Legislative Assembly. This woman, who worked for ten years in health and safety for the oil industry, drives an electric BMW whose retail price exceeds $100,000. We are far from the NDP of Jagmeet Singh, resolutely on the left, even if the United Conservatives try to associate the Alberta NDP with the alliance between the federal NDP and the Liberals of Justin Trudeau.

Rhiannon Hoyle argues that New Democrats in Alberta are proposing centre-right economic policies and centre-left social policies. “It’s really appealing to what we typically see in Alberta, this moderate voter who supports good social policies, but also wants fiscal responsibility from their government,” she says.

The party has won support from several Conservatives over the past week, including former MP Lee Richardson. “It’s the only alternative,” he said in an interview. There is no middle ground. It’s one side or the other. »

He criticizes Danielle Smith for having given a lot of space within the PCU to participants in the “freedom convoy” like Tamara Lich. The outgoing prime minister has been blamed by the Ethics Commissioner for trying to drop Coutts-related blocking charges against pastor Artur Pawlowski.

The Battle of Calgary

About 300 kilometers from Edmonton, volunteers were busy at the campaign office of Mickey Amery, a Conservative MP who is trying to retain the seat of Calgary-Cross. They were getting ready on Sunday afternoon to go on a final door-to-door tour. Every minute counts.

” I’m sorry. We are 2% away from winning and we don’t have time,” one of them told us, before showing us the door. The PCU refused all of our interview requests.

It is in this city that the election will be played. Almost all constituencies are conservative. The New Democrats, who hold only three, must not “double or triple, but be at least 15 deputies”, indicates Frédéric Boily.

The metropolis has a dozen pivotal ridings, according to the electoral projection site 338canada.com. Both Rachel Notley and Danielle Smith have focused their last days of campaigning there.

Sharon, a real estate agent we met in the riding of Calgary East, will vote for the Conservatives, as she has always done, even if she considers that Danielle Smith is not a good party leader.

She criticizes this former radio host for her controversial remarks where she claims that the majority of those vaccinated against COVID-19 have succumbed “to the charm of a tyrant” by referring to Adolf Hitler. However, this is not enough to make her change sides.

“The United Conservatives are the ones who are going to fight the best for Alberta,” explains the one who refused to give us her last name, like most of the Conservative voters interviewed.

“It seems that the United Conservatives and Danielle Smith have managed to impose the idea that the question of the ballot box is going to be around the economy rather than the lack of leadership or the inability to govern of Danielle Smith”, notes Frédéric Boilly.

They do not hesitate to attack the political record of Rachel Notley. The four years in power of the NDP, between 2015 and 2019, left a bitter taste in Calgary. The price of a barrel of oil, on which the province’s finances depend, was at an all-time low.

“Last time New Democrats ran up $70 billion in debt and they hired 50,000 public sector workers while the private sector lost 80,000 jobs,” said Garth, who also declined to give us his name. family.

Convincing the Trudeau government to buy the Trans Mountain pipeline in 2018 weighs little in the balance.