El Niño, hadn’t we already announced its return a few weeks ago?
You are right ! As early as spring, scientists predicted that there was a 66% chance that El Niño would appear by the end of 2023. “The set-up is almost perfect for the arrival of El Niño by winter,” said Alain Bourque, general manager of the Ouranos consortium, in an interview with The Press last May. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed on June 8 that the weather phenomenon had settled in the Pacific Ocean and that its effects would be felt more particularly in North America during the coming winter.
What’s new then?
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) confirmed on Tuesday that El Niño has taken hold in the southern Pacific Ocean and is “extremely likely (90%) to continue into the second half of the year. of 2023”.
I often hear about El Niño, but each time I think of Plume Latraverse’s song.
If it can reassure you, you are not the only one to make this association with the colorful singer-songwriter from Quebec. It must be said that his piece El Ninoreleased in 1998, somehow anticipated the consequences of climate change. It’s like building a barn/And setting it up by the water/In a flood-prone area/Because nature is so beautiful/If there are victims of the casino/Well, it’s still Blame it on El Niño.
I know El Niño isn’t a song, but I’m not sure I understand exactly what it is.
It is a natural phenomenon that occurs on average every two to seven years. It usually lasts 9 to 12 months. Basically, the surface water in the southern Pacific Ocean is warming, causing precipitation and rising temperatures in some parts of the world. Ironically, this causes wetter conditions in some areas and drier in others.
If I understand correctly, it’s as if El Niño was added to the effects of climate change? Is that why we talk about it so much?
Exactly. The arrival of El Nino is all the more worrying as the year 2022 ended up at the 6e ranking of the hottest years since the pre-industrial era, despite the La Niña phenomenon, the opposite of El Niño, which brings cooler temperatures. The WMO also estimates that there is a 98% chance that at least one year between 2023 and 2027 will exceed the hottest year on record, i.e. 2016. 2023 as a whole is now favorite to be the hottest year on record,” climate scientist Zeke Hausfather wrote on Twitter on Monday.
However, I seem to have read somewhere that La Niña had stopped global warming.
It’s wrong. According to renowned climatologist Michael Mann, “pretending that the climate has reached a tipping point because of El Niño is no better than pretending that global warming has stopped because of La Niña. Climate deniers have used this latest erroneous claim to hijack climate policy discourse and action for a decade. Let’s do better than them. Global warming is in line with climate model predictions. The truth is bad enough,” he wrote on Twitter on Tuesday.
What to expect this time around?
The WMO estimates that this episode of El Niño will be “at least of moderate strength” and NOAA calculates that the probability of it being strong is 56% and estimates that there is a 25% chance that it will be. exceptional.
Are we affected by El Niño in Quebec?
According to Ouranos, “an episode of El Niño can tend to soften the winter in the west of the country. However, the phenomenon has little influence in Quebec. In 1998, however, it would have intensified the episode of freezing rain which affected the Belle Province. “El Niño doesn’t really have an influence on summer in Quebec, but it can bring milder winters, there can be more rain, even ice,” says meteorologist Gilles Brien.
I have one last question? Why is it called El Niño?
This phenomenon was named after fishermen in South America, since its greatest effects usually occur around Christmas. “El Niño” means the child, in reference to Jesus.