The world has been outraged in recent weeks as drug cartels transformed Ecuador, a relatively stable and increasingly democratic Andean republic, into a veritable narco-state. For the first time, Ecuadorians are seeing their country fall under the control of criminal groups, a fate previously reserved for some of their Latin American neighbors.
The recent outbreak appears to have begun on August 9 last year, when Fernando Villavicencio, a presidential candidate who was vocal about denouncing narco violence and corruption, was assassinated by hitmen from a cartel in Quito, the country’s capital.
Already, at this time, Ecuador was experiencing an upsurge in organized violence, and saw its homicide rate rise from 5.8 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2017 (one of the lowest in the region) to 46.5 in 2023, according to the most recent data, with this figure likely to increase in 2024 according to the Ecuadorian police, who predict a 66% increase in homicides this year. Ecuador is poised to surpass all other South American countries in homicide rates — with Colombia now in second place — in record time.
On October 15, Daniel Noboa, a former banana tycoon turned president of the country, was elected riding the wave of popularity for political programs against cartel violence in Ecuador. However, soon after taking office, Noboa quickly declared a “state of exception,” suspending civil liberties and the rule of law in favor of bolder police and military action.
Last week, two major cartel leaders escaped from prison: Adolfo Macias, of the Los Choneros gang, and Fabricio Colon Pico, of the Los Lobos group, two major cartels in Ecuador. This week, criminals armed with grenades and guns took a television crew hostage in its studio, just as prison guards and police officers were also taken hostage by a group of drug traffickers in another sector of the country.
In response, Noboa acknowledged that it was an “internal armed conflict,” deployed the Ecuadorian army into the streets, and expanded state powers to “fight” against the cartels.
So why is cartel violence increasing and why is the war against cartels not working?
Ecuador’s criminal crisis is primarily a direct result of the ever-increasing demand for drugs in (mostly) rich countries. As long as there is a demand for drugs, and those drugs are illegal, there will be cartels willing to supply them. The use of hard drugs has continued to increase since the start of the war on drugs more than 50 years ago, and, like any other economic market, supply adapts to demand.
In Mexico and Bolivia, for example, the growing demand for heroin and cocaine in the United States led to a rapid increase in opium poppy cultivation and the production of heroin and cocaine. If this demand is not addressed, it will continue to increase, and the drug cartels will continue to produce.
Second, as cartels in Colombia, Mexico, Brazil, Venezuela, and other neighboring countries have been driven out by shrinking local drug markets, competing cartels, and the government, many of them have found in Ecuador, which was, until recently, very little affected by the big drug cartels. For example, the Venezuelan group Tren de Aragua, known for its merciless violence, began to appear in Ecuador. The same goes for Mexican and Colombian gangs present in Quito and Guayaquil.
Another notable factor is the militarized approach. Violence begets violence, Noboa’s state of exception risks making the situation worse. Noboa’s predecessor, Guillermo Lasso, encouraged police and military intervention against drug traffickers, leading to an increase in cartel takedowns and violence. Taking a violent approach will only create more cartels, as it encourages cartels to split and engage in direct confrontations with the state and other cartels.
In doing so, Mr. Noboa has aligned himself with the policies of some of his predecessors and contemporaries, policies that have been proven to have failed. These include Presidents Felipe Calderón in Mexico, Álvaro Uribe in Colombia, and Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil. All expanded police and military powers against drug cartels as they grappled with rising criminal violence, only to see increased violence and insecurity as a result of their policies. .
These policies have already claimed millions of lives and created migration crises over the past five decades, while the region continues to be held hostage by drug cartels and quality of life and civil liberties decline. diminish.
If governments are unable to address the root cause of cartel formation, namely socio-economic conditions and the supply and demand of illicit drugs, drug cartels will continue to thrive. The more cartels grow, the more the government will respond with violence and suspension of freedoms, leading to more deaths and repression. The root causes will not be addressed and the vicious cycle will repeat itself.
Unfortunately, in the absence of any sign of willingness or ability from Noboa or any other major politician in Ecuador to change their approach, the violence will not end, and may even intensify.