What will Quebec’s territory look like in 2050? Our journalists spoke to experts to imagine the possible avenues and what can be implemented today to achieve this vision. In this text, the agriculture of the future, at the forefront of adaptation to the climate crisis.
In 2050, a Quebecer driving on the highway looks at the agricultural landscape, still in transformation. There are vines on its right. On the other side, the corn and soybean fields are no longer in monoculture; we see them alternating with fodder crops, surrounded by a belt of protective trees and shrubs.
In the distance, there is no longer any agricultural land which is left bare, especially in winter. If he drives northeast, whether in Bas-Saint-Laurent or Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean, Quebecers behind the wheel will find apple trees where there were none, or even, why not, peach trees and apricot trees while driving towards the south of the province.
The agriculture of 2050 is not a complete break with the turn of the 2020s, but “it is its diversity” that sets it apart, says Patrick Mundler, professor at the Faculty of Agriculture and Food Sciences from Laval University. “More and more landscapes would look like bocage”, he continues, especially if the fragmentation of land allows more small farms, especially market gardeners, to settle.
These areas of crops or meadows where shrub strips and trees draw a mosaic are not only rather pleasing to the eye, they are also “places of production of tons of ecosystem services, serve to retain erosion and wildlife corridors,” says Mundler.
In 2050, climatic upheavals have lengthened the growing season, which benefits several crops, such as soybeans and even vines. “We can think that there is a longer, warmer and more favorable season,” says Anne Blondlot, Food Systems Priority Coordinator at Ouranos.
Already, in the 2010s and 2020s, winemakers in Quebec claimed that the simple fact of being able to produce red wine here was due to an elongated season.
There is also a “displacement” of crops: “Apple crops could also move north, as well as corn or soybeans,” says M.me Blondlot by lending itself to the prospecting exercise. “Could there be something else, maybe peaches, like in southern Ontario? I don’t know, because it hasn’t been studied yet, ”she says.
In a more scientistic vision, we may already be practicing “precision agriculture”, with automation even in fruit and vegetable crops and with drones. Harmful organisms, “we fight them with the right dose, in the right place and at the right time”, says Mr. Mundler. This means that government objectives for reducing the risks of pesticide use have probably been achieved, or even exceeded, in the most optimistic scenarios.
A less rosy vision
These visions of the future obviously come with “big downsides”, warn the two researchers.
The consequences of current agricultural practices on soils are of growing concern, primarily to agricultural producers. These soils, which could even be used for carbon sequestration in certain scenarios, must be nourished by a greater diversity of crops: “We can imagine that there will be at least one cereal introduced in the corn-soya rotation”, says Professor Mundler.
If you get as close as possible to the plants in the fields of 2050, you are likely to see unknown insects there; some are crop pests, while others are part of biological integrated pest management, which has largely replaced synthetic pesticides.
“Producers are already very resilient and they are used to adapting to climate variability,” notes Ms.me Blondlot. But new invasive species could take root here, not to mention “insects, diseases and all the crop enemies already present that could cause more damage,” she says. For example, the brown marmorated stink bug is currently not winter hardy. But this insect pest, which attacks a wide variety of fruits and vegetables, could become capable of doing so with the increase in average temperatures.
Extreme weather events will also become more frequent. Heavy rains, for example, can destroy vegetable crops such as lettuce within minutes. At the other end of the spectrum, water deficits will force the adoption of better irrigation systems, researchers and farmers hope.
Cover cropping, reduction in the use of pesticides, biodiversity: all these elements are already part of the Quebec Sustainable Agriculture Plan presented by Minister André Lamontagne for 2020-2030 among the agri-environmental practices eligible for compensation.
Agricultural producers are already adapting, but they are facing enormous financial pressures, in addition to several other problems such as succession. “They must not be alone, it must be a whole system”, says Mme Blondlot, citing Agriclimat as a model to follow. This project helps producers acquire the knowledge to adapt to upheavals, while improving their own carbon footprint.
The choices of consumers and governments will influence the agriculture of tomorrow. If, in 2050, meat consumption has dropped drastically, as recommended by most experts to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, farms will make way for other farms. We may see more expanses of legumes, but “also more greenhouses and plastic tunnels,” says Mundler.
“It is certain that in 2050, adaptation is already part of the picture. But we will also have to continue to adapt, even if we miraculously stopped producing GHGs,” she says.