After decades of clear majorities in the National Assembly, the early legislative elections have given rise to three main blocs, none of which has enough political weight to claim to govern alone. Would a proportional vote have changed the situation?
A historic fragmentation. The National Assembly born from the second round of early legislative elections on Sunday, July 7, is divided into three main blocs, but without an absolute majority. The left united within the New Popular Front, the presidential camp federated in Ensemble and the National Rally and its allies each failed to exceed 200 seats, far from the fateful threshold of 289 deputies, synonymous with an absolute majority and a government protected from a motion of censure.
With this Assembly without a clear majority, several voices have argued for a change from the majority vote to proportional representation. In simplified terms, this method of election consists of granting each party the number of seats that corresponds to the number of votes it has collected. This is not the case today: the parties present candidates, constituency by constituency, with the need to gather 50% of the votes to win the seat of deputy. The election can be played in one round or, more often, in two.
A long time “reserve” On proportional representation, former President François Hollande says he is now a convert. “Given what French political life is, its fragmentation, the difficulty in making withdrawals, the frustration that it can induce”, it’s necessary “that this proportional representation can now be the common law”argued on franceinfo at the beginning of July the man who was elected from Corrèze in the second round.
Proportional representation is a long-standing demand from certain political parties, such as the MoDem of centrist François Bayrou or the RN of Marine Le Pen. The far-right party made its first parliamentary breakthrough in 1986, with 35 deputies, on the occasion of the temporary introduction of this voting method in the legislative elections.
To know whether proportional representation would have changed the situation in relation to the composition of the National Assembly that emerged from the ballot boxes after the legislative elections, we must rely on the scores of the first round, because a proportional vote is not contested in two rounds. Several types of proportional representation are possible: full or departmental, but also with a qualification threshold of 5% of the votes, as in the European elections.
Applying this last hypothesis to the results of the first round of the legislative elections, only four blocs would send deputies to the Assembly: the RN and its allies, the New Popular Front, the presidential bloc and the LR and various right-wing parties. The other political forces, below 5% of the vote, would not have any elected representatives.
The RN and its right-wing and far-right allies would have obtained more elected representatives than they currently have (209 deputies, against 143), unlike the presidential bloc (127, against 163) and the Republicans (64, against 66), but without any notable change for the left (177, against 180).
“The majority voting system has distorting effects”summarizes constitutionalist Anne-Charlène Bezzina. This is what many RN supporters have been denouncing since Sunday evening: the composition of the Assembly does not sufficiently reflect the “popular suffrage”namely the balance of power in terms of votes.
“The majority vote is less faithful to the representation of votes than proportional representation.”
Anne-Charlène Bezzina, constitutionalistto franceinfo
If proportional representation had been applied, the situation would have been very different, particularly before the submission of the lists. With the majority vote, “the electoral offer is reduced in the first round”analyzes public law professor Bastien François. In the current configuration, each party does not try to defend its own colors at all costs, but tries to ally itself with partners to qualify for the second round and have a chance of winning. “We usually say that we choose in the first round and eliminate in the second”continues Anne-Charlène Bezzina.
The Republican front to prevent the RN from coming to power thus fully functioned, due to numerous withdrawals on the left and in the center. “In the second round, most voters voted for the least bad, by default,” points out Bastien François. In some constituencies, these withdrawals led to elections of deputies with very high scores. The specialist deplores the “lost voices” which, in a proportional system, would have gone to another candidate and would have strengthened another party at the national level.
Proportional representation would have another virtue, argues the specialist: “No minority party can have a majority on its own, which forces parties to form coalitions.” However, political science lecturer Thomas Ehrhard believes that this voting method “does not create more fragmentation than the majority vote, which does not make it any better to establish majorities”, as is the case today. Alliances and negotiations between parties, however, intervene in both cases.
“The New Popular Front would not have existed before a proportional vote, but would have been formed afterwards.”
Thomas Ehrhard, lecturer in political scienceto franceinfo
The expert rejects the fact that proportional representation also develops a culture of compromise, which other European countries would have and which France would lack. “Each electoral context is unique, the balance of power depends on the arithmetic in Parliament. The German parties relearn this with each election: they first look at the results in seats and then negotiate coalitions. And depending on the number of seats missing for an absolute majority, these negotiations are more or less difficult.”
Introduce proportional remainder “the only thing we are able to do at the moment”supports Bastien François. “It does not require a revision of the Constitution or a referendum, because it is an organic law and there can be a large majority in its favour.”he explains. In the eyes of the rebellious leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon, “a majority will exist” in favor of proportional representation, “if the New Popular Front group introduces such a law”he hammered home on LCI on Monday evening.
A reform that is as concrete as it is symbolic, in a context where there are many political divisions to overcome in order to form a government. “For the parties, this would allow them to tell the electorate that they have been beaten up and that from now on, the voice of the citizens will weigh more heavily on the policy of the future government.”notes Bastien François.
Whatever happens, the election of deputies by proportional representation is not a matter of the immediate future. On the one hand, there is no guarantee that the new National Assembly will be seized of this reform or will put this project on the table. On the other hand, according to Article 12 of the Constitution, “no new dissolution may be carried out within the year following these elections”In theory, the next legislative elections that would follow a possible new dissolution would not take place before the summer of 2025.