Did you know that in Jean-Talon, on Monday, a 104-year-old voter participated in the vote? Also two residents aged 103 and five aged 100. There are also those who did not show up. Thus, the participation rate of registrants aged 106 was 0%. (There was only one.) For the 62 centenarians present on the electoral list, therefore presumed able to vote, the participation rate was a little less than 25%, half the general rate, high , 56% for the partial. I’m betting, however, that this is a record that will be broken in every election cycle to come. The political impact of aging unfolds before us, advancing — what is now a rare sight — at the speed of a glacier.
The participation rate of new voters, those aged 18, was very respectable: 49%. But the age group most present in the ballot box on Monday was 60 years old, with 76% participation, a slightly higher share than that of 61 to 80 year olds.
The imbalance in participation in the age pyramid is an invariant of our political life. More surprising is the decision of a large proportion of Jean-Talon’s gray-haired voters to slap their co-religionist, François Legault, 66 years old, to make a triumph of a young man, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, 46 years old (but we would give him 36, right?). How to explain it? To unravel this mystery, we must turn, among the available analysts, to someone who cannot be suspected of having an anti-Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) bias.
The Prime Minister’s office has complained a lot in recent months about the disappearance of pro-CAQ columnists. Previously, there was Bernard Drainville (Cogeco), Caroline St-Hilaire (TVA), Marie Grégoire (Radio-Can) and, but we don’t really dare say it, Martine Biron (idem). What have they become ?
In their absence, we can turn to someone who was still, just a few months ago, a member of the CAQ caucus. A lady, Joëlle Boutin, now a commentator on The joust on LCN, and who can attest to a detailed knowledge of the Jean-Talon constituency. Damn! She was a deputy for almost six years. Here is how she analyzed the behavior of her ex-voters on Thursday: “It is the echo of the discontent of the greater Quebec region, not just of Jean-Talon, and of a feeling of betrayal. People don’t like being taken for a bit like idiots. »
All is said. But is this feeling really limited to the Quebec region alone? This is what those close to the Prime Minister say and what seems to motivate the remedy they are proposing: the return of the third link. However, a simple overview of the Léger poll at the end of September, which now appears to be a weak harbinger of last week’s debacle, allowed the diagnosis of a more generalized evil. If we compare it to last December’s poll, we see, yes, that the CAQ went from 48% to 23% in voting intentions in the Quebec region. Among all French speakers? From 48% to 39%. In the regions of Quebec? Same: from 48% to 39%.
Quebec is therefore experiencing a period of disenchantment with François Legault and his team. When asked, after last year’s elections, the main reason for their pro-CAQ vote, voters cited “management of the pandemic” as the main reason for their contentment. No one believed that this management had been perfect. But the serious, thoughtful, essentially transparent attitude of the Prime Minister had, let us say it, enchanted Quebecers.
Here, the form is more important than the substance. And we have felt, for a year, that Mr. Legault is no longer polite. He casually breaks his promises, damages his own credibility by repeating arguments that he must know are false, shows contempt for his opponents. We cannot blame him for being combative. But we feel that all this bothers him: the questions, the opposition, the reminder of his promises. Democracy, what!
Nothing seems to irritate him more than the enchantment which is taking place around his now main adversary: PSPP. A sign: even if he had decided to appear contrite and humble, on the evening of his defeat in Jean-Talon, Legault could not help but appear at the lectern without waiting for the end of the winning leader’s speech. He sounded like “shut up, little brat, you’ve talked enough, uncle has something important to say.”
It’s true that Plamondon was a little long, but didn’t he deserve his speaking time, he who isn’t even allowed one question per day in the Assembly? The Prime Minister’s irritation is all the more deep-rooted because the real question he wants to ask the young leader is: “Isn’t he dead?” » CAQ strategists had decided that there was no place in Quebec for two nationalist parties. Hence their attempt to assassinate the Parti Québécois. It missed.
The voters decided otherwise. The 2026 election promises to be a war between two nationalist parties. For now, the dividing line between the two is not “we continue to be content to be a province” versus “we want a country”. But rather “we continue to take you for idiots” versus “we respect your intelligence”. Continued in the next partial. Or the next pandemic.
Jean-François Lisée led the PQ from 2016 to 2018. He has just published Through the mouth of my pencilspublished by Somme tout/Le Devoir. [email protected]