Wars between states are increasingly taking on the appearance of civil wars and, like these, are becoming total wars. The extent of the human losses and material destruction affecting civilians, the multiplication of sanctions, the mobilization of all the resources of a country, the accusations of cowardice or treason, and finally the rhetoric of hatred which establishes between the belligerents a fanaticism irreducible, everything combines to lead to what is called total war.
Like civil wars, total wars end with the capitulation of the vanquished and conditions of peace without appeal: diplomacy no longer has any place in it. The 1919 Treaty of Versailles which followed the Great War (1914-1918) was negotiated between the victors and dictated to Germany without prior negotiations with it. The Yalta Accords of 1945 were negotiated and signed between the Allies before being applied to Germany without further ado. It must be said that it was impossible to negotiate with the Nazi leaders, guilty of numerous crimes against humanity.
We find the same scenarios and the same outcomes in the civil wars in the United States (1861-1865) and in Spain (1936-1939): hundreds of thousands of deaths in each case, not to mention the material destruction and humiliation of the vanquished.
Gravediggers of diplomacy
Good diplomacy is distinguished by the limits it imposes on itself, a clear vision of international relations, its understanding of realities and its concern to adapt to the many pitfalls and fluctuations of the situation. Diplomacy is above all a matter of method and discipline, of foresight and resolution. The transition from the Cold War to the rebirth of nations in Eastern Europe illustrates very well this diplomacy in search of balance and the recognition of States.
Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, the entire political space east of the Oder lay fallow: Russia humiliated by defeat, by the loss of five million square kilometres, economically drained, socially dislocated, politically and morally unhinged.
President George Bush and his Secretary of State James Baker had, with great tact and pragmatism, managed the transition to the post-Cold War era, reintegrating Russia into the concert of powers, and ensuring that the former countries satellites recover their respective sovereignty confiscated by the Soviet Union. The United States then managed to preserve American preponderance in the world without crushing yesterday’s enemy, and to move to another stage in international relations while maintaining the balance necessary for the smooth running of business.
However, imperial ideology and nostalgia have disturbed, in the 21ste century, the new international order: from the hegemonic conception of the American neoconservatives (occupation of Afghanistan and Iraq) to the revengeful and defiant nationalism of Russia (invasion of Georgia and Ukraine). Turkey and China are two other examples of revengeful ultranationalism, nostalgic for fallen empires. There will always be clashes between the powers, it’s in the nature of things, but diplomacy is there to mitigate the effects and restore the balance.
Absurd war, improbable peace
On February 23, 2022, Vladimir Putin had all the cards in hand. The next day, by taking the step too far, that is to say by invading the Ukraine, he lost control of the game and became hostage to his war. An ill-conceived, ill-organised, ill-executed military offensive first caused him to lose face, and above all thousands of soldiers and officers. He had to change his strategy and, in order to terrorize the civilians, contrived to systematically destroy military and civilian infrastructures, provoking the exile of several million civilians, the fierce resistance of the Ukrainians who remained there and the irrepressible mistrust of European countries.
Tomorrow’s historians will wonder how, by what mysterious alchemy, a statesman renowned for his cynicism and his tactical skill was transformed, in the blink of an eye, into an uncontrollable predator. One does not conquer a country of 35 million inhabitants through imperial gluttony. “With bayonets, Sire, you can do anything except sit on them,” Talleyrand told Napoleon.
It is difficult, in this context, to envisage peace in the near future. Today as in the XXe century, the warrior reflex took precedence over negotiation, the rise to extremes over compromise and the release of instincts over self-control: all-out wars sounded the death knell of traditional diplomacy.