Temperatures in France are currently below seasonal norms due to the presence of a pocket of cold air which normally persists over Northern Europe, but this is not expected to last.
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Cool weather and rain are on the cards for this weekend. This is explained in particular by a “polar shift”. The thermometer still shows temperatures three to five degrees below seasonal averages today, including in the southern half, effectively due to a “polar shift”. A pocket of cold air, which normally remains over Northern Europe due to a combination of atmospheric factors, but which has infiltrated France since the start of the week. But this is a one-off and localized phenomenon. The French situation contrasts with what is happening around us from Libya to the Balkans, from Egypt to Turkey where we are recording temperatures of up to 40 degrees.
According to Météo France, this freshness should not remain on the menu this summer. According to seasonal forecasts established on the basis of 14 weather models in force around the world, climatologists and oceanographers have established that there is an 80% statistical probability that the temperatures in the months of June, July and August will be consistent or above seasonal averages. Around the Mediterranean, the probability of a summer hotter than average is even 70%. The underlying trend obviously remains that of global warming due to human activities. In this context and as summer approaches, Météo France has restarted its forest weather site.
This map of French departments with four colors which correspond to four levels of danger of fire propagation is once again accessible on the internet. The sensitivity of vegetation to fires is calculated according to parameters such as rain, temperature, wind force and the dryness of the soil. On Tuesday, a first fire destroyed 600 hectares of vegetation in the Var massif of Maures. The fire was fanned by gusts of wind. It is also today, with a view to summer, that the Ministry of Ecological Transition is officially launching its vegetation fire prevention campaign. In nine out of 10 cases, these fires are of human origin, and often linked to carelessness.
