There would be a “Coderre effect”, it is said, because with him at its head, the PLQ would increase from 15 to 21% in voting intentions.
Calm down.
At 21%, the PLQ would do worse than the worst score in its history, the 24.8% obtained with Philippe Couillard at its head in 2018.
At 21%, the PLQ would be far, very far from power, even if the support of anglophones and allophones in Montreal guarantees it an appreciable number of seats.
Transformed?
The mini-jump from 15 to 21% is attributable to two factors.
First, Denis Coderre is very well known, for good or bad, and there are voters who are like: “Ah, I know him!”
It seems that this reassures them.
In the past, people told me: “I voted for you because I met you at the shopping center.” They had no idea who I was or my ideas and didn’t care.
Then, these people compare a PLQ led by Denis Coderre to the current PLQ, led by Marc Tanguay who has amply demonstrated his limited potential, or by other applicants, who do not break bricks either.
Antoine Dionne Charest, for the moment, is nothing other than “the son of…”.
Frédéric Beauchemin spontaneously raises a single question: who?
Marwah Rizqy – was new proof needed? – exists politically through his ease in the House and the continual tom-tom in his favor from a few commentators.
The real electorate, including the faithful of the PLQ, struggles to see how she is different from Dominique Anglade.
The real question regarding Denis Coderre is: what is the growth potential in terms of voting intentions of a PLQ led by him?
Is this current 21% a floor, a ceiling or somewhere in between?
There are two things: Denis Coderre has transformed or he has not (or barely) transformed.
Personally, I have always believed that we cannot reinvent ourselves. We adjust, but we are who we are, and it eventually comes out.
From then on, the more people see Denis Coderre, the more they will find the classic Coderre, who has been in our political landscape since 1988, except for a few alterations.
Those who love him will find all their reasons to love him again. Those who don’t love will find all their reasons not to love.
- Listen to Joseph Facal’s column via QUB :
Refoundation
In any case, Coderre or another, the fundamental problem remains that the PLQ is at 7% among French speakers.
It foundered because under the Charest-Couillard tandem, it became a miniature version of the federal Liberal party, and because the CAQ now occupies the niche that was once its own.
To redress the PLQ among French-speakers, its future leader should take positions that will displease the Anglophones and allophones who control the party. A real overhaul. A very perilous mission.