400 births
Quebec recorded 77,950 births in 2023, the lowest number of births in almost 20 years, according to the most recent data from the Institut de la tourisme du Québec (ISQ). At the same time, 77,550 deaths occurred in the province in 2023. This means that the natural increase in the population held up to 400 births last year, or just over one newborn per day. “We knew that the natural increase in the population was low, but it’s still a shock to see these data,” explains Sophie Mathieu, senior program specialist at the Vanier Institute of the Family and author of the new book Equality, fertility and maternity: support for families in Quebec.
Social context
PHOTO MARTIN CHAMBERLAND, LA PRESSE ARCHIVES
Quebec dads are more involved in their parental role than those elsewhere in Canada, underlines Sophie Mathieu.
If the decision to have a child is personal, it is nonetheless very influenced by the social context in which the parents operate, notes Sophie Mathieu. She notes that the birth rate of 1.49 recorded in Quebec in 2022 is higher than that of the rest of Canada, which is 1.33. “Quebec is doing better, because we have more parental leave, because dads are more involved, there is greater sensitivity to work-family balance. Having children affects the life course of women less than elsewhere in Canada. Despite everything, we need to have a birth rate of 2.1 children per couple to maintain the population, and we are not there,” she says.
Not a priority
Quebec and Canada are experiencing the same trend as other Western countries, notes Solène Lardoux, associate professor in the demography department at the University of Montreal. “In this sense, it is not surprising, even if the end of natural population growth is coming a little faster than expected,” she says. From now on, it is mainly through immigration that the population of Quebec will continue to increase. And new arrivals don’t necessarily have many children either, notes Mme Lardoux. “Their fertility behavior over time resembles that of the population as a whole, because new arrivals are caught with all the constraints of the host country. Governments, it is not part of their priority to encourage the arrival of a child, to give value to this project. They could campaign, make housing more affordable, promote work-family balance, and study-family for immigrants. All this can be done. »
Pandemic disruption
Sophie Mathieu notes that the pandemic has had an effect on people’s life choices, including when to have a child. “We noted, for example, that divorces fell in 2020 and 2021. It is not because couples began to love each other more, it is because they could not divorce. » She expects the number of births to increase slightly in 2024 and 2025. “With inflation, economic uncertainty, many people may have just postponed the plan to have a child,” she says. She.
Excess mortality in 2023
PHOTO OLIVIER JEAN, LA PRESSE ARCHIVES
Respiratory viruses fueled the increase in deaths in 2023, while seniors represented most of the excess mortality observed, according to the ISQ.
Alongside the decline in births, an increase in mortality is precipitating the end of the natural growth of Quebec’s population. The number of deaths recorded in 2023 in Quebec was approximately 4,000 higher than the ISQ forecasts. Respiratory viruses fueled this increase in deaths in 2023, while seniors represented most of the excess mortality observed, according to the ISQ. A share of the deaths could also be linked to the opioid crisis which mainly affects people aged under 50.