Experts and analysts predicted their debacle next November, on the occasion of the mid-term elections. But one summer, amplified attacks on abortion rights and searches at Mar-a-Lago, Donald Trump’s residence, passed by, now putting Joe Biden’s Democrats in a better position at the polls, and this, in view of the next fall election.
At least that’s what a Wall Street Journal poll, published Thursday, gives 47% of the voting intentions to the Democrats against 44% for the party still dominated by Donald Trump. Last March, the same sounding gave the Republicans a 5-point lead.
This is the first time in more than a year that the public opinion measure has highlighted a ruling party lead in voting intentions across the United States. Historically, mid-term legislative elections punish the occupant of the White House by favoring opposition candidates.
“To what should we attribute this democratic revival, if that is what it is, asks political analyst Bernard Goldberg in the pages of the specialized political daily The Hill? The Supreme Court’s reversal of the Roe v. Wade case last June [sur l’avortement] which boosted the enthusiasm of many women voters” towards the Democratic vote.
The poll, which reached 1,300 duly registered voters between August 17 and 25, tends to prove him partly right, by revealing an increase in Democratic voting intentions among independents, women and young people, but also within the African-American and Hispanic community, whose vote traditionally goes to the Democrats.
White suburban women — a particularly volatile group capable of quickly switching political camps — now say they are 52% ready to vote for a Democratic candidate in their riding, compared to 40% for a Republican.
Among independent voters, who usually make electoral victories and defeats, the change of opinion is also very strong: 38% say they want to vote for the Democrats, against 35% for the Republicans. Last March, Donald Trump’s party was ahead by 12 points within this segment of the American electorate.
Until the beginning of the summer, “the Republicans were cruising and the Democrats were having difficulty”, analyzes the Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio, who conducted the poll for the American daily with his Democratic colleague John Anzalone. “And then the issue of abortion appeared, acting a bit like a defibrillator for the Democrats,” he adds, quoted by the Wall Street Journal.
Declining donations
“The mood has shifted among Republicans over the past few weeks, shifting from a sense of unbridled optimism to sober reflection on their chances of victory” in the run-up to the midterm elections, wrote a few days ago. the very conservative and very Republican Washington Examiner, while recalling that Donald Trump’s party is now facing a shortage of liquidity, a sign of some voter disaffection.
In the second quarter of 2022, online donations fell by 12% for all the campaigns and political committees of his political formation which, however, since 2016 under the leadership of the populist, has managed to convince many voters to give him small donations to fuel his attacks on the American electoral system, among other things.
At the same time, contributions to Democratic campaign coffers, through these same small online donations, of less than $100, have climbed 21% over the same period.
Sign of an unfavorable wind for the Republicans: this week, it is a Democrat, Mary Peltola, who won the special election in Alaska to occupy the post left vacant by the death of the Republican Don Young in the House of Representatives. She thus pulled the rug out from under Sarah Palin, who hoped by this ballot, to make a return to the American federal political scene. Since 1972, no Democrat had held that seat.
In mid-August, Republican Senate Leader Mitch McConnell admitted to Kentucky reporters that his party’s chances of securing a majority in the upper house next November had now drastically diminished. He cited the “quality of candidates” Republicans in several states to justify his assertion. The senate is currently divided equally between the two dominant political parties in the United States. Donald Trump has backed atypical candidates backing up his spurious claims about the theft of the 2020 election, many of whom are trailing in the polls in several states.
And as if that weren’t enough, the site FiveThirtyEigh now predicts that the Democrats have a 68% chance of retaining control of the Senate next November, up from 50% just a few weeks ago. A prediction to be taken with a grain of salt, however, two months before voting day, where other trend reversals are still possible.
Nevertheless, “for all this, the Democrats should send flowers to Donald Trump and a gift basket filled with candies, commented Thursday Bernard Goldberg. Never has a defeated American president put his party’s electoral chances in such a precarious state”.