(New York) The representative of Texas Henry Cuellar is an exception within the Democratic group of the House of Representatives: he is opposed to the right to abortion.
Posted at 5:00 a.m.
As such, the 66-year-old elected official should not necessarily expect to receive the support of his party leaders in the Democratic primary opposing him to Jessica Cisneros, a young 28-year-old lawyer, who fiercely defends this recognized right since 1973 in the United States. After all, Joe Biden himself called on citizens to elect pro-choice candidates in the wake of a leaked Supreme Court document announcing the possible reversal of Roe v. Wade.
However, in this primary whose second round will take place on Tuesday, the Democratic staff in the House prefers Cuellar to Cisneros. And this, even if Cuellar recently voted against a text intended to register Roe c. Wade into federal law.
How is it possible ?
“I support my outgoing representatives, left and right,” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said at a press conference.
Then, referring to the votes needed to pass the bill guaranteeing access to abortion, she clarified: “ [Cuellar] isn’t pro-choice, but we didn’t need him. »
She could have added, “But we need his seat to keep our slim majority in the House going into the midterm elections.” »
And it is far from certain that a progressive candidate like Jessica Cisneros could win it in November. This dilemma speaks volumes about the situation for Democrats in South Texas in general and Henry Cuellar’s constituency in particular.
Photo Eric Gay, Associated Press ARCHIVES
Jessica Cisneros
This district, which includes part of San Antonio and extends to the Texas border with Mexico, has long been a Democratic stronghold.
But his many Hispanic voters, mostly of Mexican immigration, are increasingly drawn to the Republican Party.
A “more conservative” population
“The Mexican-American population, which is largely Catholic, is more conservative, at least in Texas,” says Juan Sepúlveda, Barack Obama’s presidential campaign manager in the Lone Star State in 2008.
“This influences his positions on several subjects, including abortion,” added the man who now holds a management position at Trinity University in San Antonio.
Nonetheless, Jessica Cisneros didn’t shy away from using the leaked Supreme Court document on Roe v. Wade to recall his difference with Henry Cuellar on abortion. She is thus seeking to mobilize the most progressive voters in her constituency.
To achieve this end, she also enjoys the help of the most prominent progressive elected officials in the United States, from Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to Elizabeth Warren to Bernie Sanders, who have all campaigned alongside her during the of the last few months.
But the success of this strategy is uncertain, according to Juan Sepúlveda.
“The reason is the reality of the electorate in that particular riding,” he said. Where it might help is around the boroughs in southern San Antonio. But the thing is, it’s a much smaller part of the riding. Laredo is the biggest. »
A border town of 265,000 people, 95% of whom are Hispanic, Laredo happens to be the birthplace and stronghold of Henry Cuellar. It was there that he founded his own law firm in 1981 before being elected to the Texas House of Representatives in 1986, then to the United States House of Representatives in 2004.
“His family is very well connected politically,” says Juan Sepúlveda. This plays into its popularity. I think if Rep. Cuellar wins the second round, he would be re-elected. »
The issue of immigration
Henry Cuellar and Jessica Cisneros face off for the second time. In 2020, a second round of voting was also necessary to determine a winner, the first round of the Democratic primary not having allowed any candidate in the running to obtain at least 50% of the votes.
During this second round, Cuellar had triumphed by collecting 52% of the votes, against 48% for Cisneros.
In 2022, Henry Cuellar seemed even more vulnerable. Last January, the FBI raided his home and his campaign office in Laredo as part of an investigation that remains mysterious (and of which he is not the target, according to his lawyer).
But abortion is not the only theme that could allow the Democratic representative to survive. Immigration is another.
The representative notably opposed the lifting of a health rule called “Title 42” which authorizes the immediate removal of asylum seekers or migrants at borders under the pretext of COVID-19 (a judge in Louisiana prevented last Friday the Biden administration to end this measure on Monday, as it planned).
In contrast, Jessica Cisneros advocates the lifting of this rule. This position is contested within the constituency where she is running, as well as in two other constituencies in South Texas which are represented today by Democrats and which could switch to the opposing camp next November.
“We saw it in the 2020 presidential election in particular: issues surrounding immigration helped push many Mexican-Americans from South Texas to the Republican Party, especially men, for a variety of reasons related property and territory, among others, points out Juan Sepúlveda. In this context, the position of Representative Cuellar, who is demanding from the Biden administration a plan to manage the border before going further, is likely to help him on the electoral level. »
And that’s how the “last” anti-abortion Democrat in the House of Representatives could retain that title after the midterm elections.