Since the deadly earthquake that devastated Syria and Turkey, Arab countries have resumed contact and sent aid to President Bashar al-Assad, who could take advantage of the tragedy to break out of his diplomatic isolation, analysts believe.
“The terrible tragedy that struck Syria and Turkey constitutes a clear opportunity for Bashar al-Assad”, who will “try to advance the process of normalization of his regime with the rest of the Arab world”, declared to AFP analyst Nick Heras.
But “this humanitarian crisis will not exonerate his regime in the eyes of Western countries,” adds the researcher at the New Lines Institute.
A few hours after the earthquake on Monday, the Syrian president received condolences from his Egyptian counterpart, the first call between the two men since Abdel Fattah al-Sisi came to power in 2014.
President Assad has been ostracized by several Arab countries since he was expelled from the Arab League at the end of 2011, after the start of the popular uprising against the regime which degenerated into a civil war.
The United Arab Emirates, the first Gulf country to restore relations with Damascus, has already pledged aid of at least $50 million and sent planes loaded with humanitarian aid.
The king of Bahrain for his part called President Assad on Monday, the first official contact in more than ten years between the two men.
Lebanon, which says it maintains a policy of distancing from the Syrian conflict, also sent a delegation to Damascus on Wednesday, for the first high-level official visit since the start of the conflict.
” Take the chance “
Humanitarian aid could pave the way for “a channel for lasting diplomatic engagement,” Heras said.
But Aron Lund, a member of the Century International think tank, is cautious.
“These are routine messages that these leaders would send to any other head of state after a major natural disaster,” he said.
He believes, however, that the Syrian president “will try to seize the current opportunity”, especially since the crisis could facilitate bilateral contacts between Damascus and states hitherto reluctant to normalize.
Saudi Arabia, which severed ties with Damascus in 2012 and backed the opposition at the start of the conflict, pledged aid, including to government-controlled areas.
A source at the King Salman Humanitarian and Relief Center told AFP that the aid would be sent directly to the regime-held Aleppo International Airport, as well as to the Syrian Red Crescent in Damascus, specifying however that there were no direct channels with the government of Mr. Assad.
Qatar, accused of having financed the armed opposition to Mr. Assad and which has not yet normalized its relations, has also promised its help.
The earthquake could also accelerate the thaw of relations between Damascus and Ankara, which supports the rebels in the northwest of the country, according to Mr. Lund.
“The two countries now have a problem in common that goes beyond borders and political disagreements,” he said.
Western aid
The regime’s efforts to emerge from its isolation are far from being confined to the Arab world.
Damascus calls the civil war a conspiracy fomented by Westerners and says the economic crisis is linked to international sanctions that have hit Syria since 2011.
But on Monday, Syrian Ambassador to the United Nations Bassam Sabbagh announced that his country was ready to “work with those who want to help Syrians”.
The head of Syrian diplomacy, Faisal Moqdad, affirmed that the regime was ready to “facilitate” the arrival of international aid.
The Syrian Red Crescent, for its part, called for help from the American Agency for Development (USAID).
And on Wednesday, Syria requested aid from the European Union for relief, announced European Commissioner Janez Lenarcic, who encouraged member states to provide such assistance and to “ensure” that the aid would not be “not diverted”.
The United States, for its part, indicated on Tuesday that it was working with local NGOs in Syria, refusing any contact with Damascus.
And on Thursday, France announced emergency aid to all Syrian regions, while emphasizing that this did not change the “political approach” of Paris vis-à-vis the regime of Bashar al-Assad.