The world has changed. And not for the better.
Posted at 5:00 a.m.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine this week clearly marks the loss of influence of the liberal democracies that have held sway since the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989.
This attack also bears witness to the decline of the international rule of law, one of the great achievements of the post-war period, which had as its cornerstone respect for the sovereignty of countries.
However, the United States, which played the role of world sheriff since the end of the cold war, no longer has the same look. We saw it clearly in Afghanistan, where their departure in confusion left the field open to the Taliban, who reduced democracy to crumbs.
When the sheriff isn’t around, the cowboys rule the roost.
And a despot like Vladimir Putin no longer hesitates to redraw the map of the world according to his vision of the former Soviet empire.
In total disregard of international rules.
In defiance of the people who will pay with their blood.
In defiance of democracy in Ukraine.
That Russia tramples on international conventions in this way is not so surprising. We saw it in Georgia in 2008. We saw it in Crimea in 2014. What is even more surprising is the reaction of the Americans themselves to the invasion of Ukraine.
Seeing their sworn Cold War enemy go to war, despite the warnings of President Joe Biden, one would have thought that the population would rally behind his leader. Traditionally, partisan struggles are put aside, at least for a while, to face an external threat.
But far from burying the hatchet, former President Donald Trump instead seized the opportunity to praise the “genius” of Putin, who, let’s underline it in broad strokes, had swarmed on social networks to promote his election. in 2016… and undermine American democracy.
Putin can say: mission accomplished.
Today, the authoritarian style of management is popular among Republicans, who are more likely to support the Russian president than their own president1. It’s incredible !
Decidedly, democracy is at half mast.
On all fronts.
Do these Republicans who continue to denounce, wrongly, the rigging of the last elections even know how President Putin organizes an election? Do those who spray President Biden with insults see how political opponents in Russia have the annoying habit of dying suddenly?
It doesn’t matter, in the era of political tribalism, we follow the leader’s ideas and demonize the adversary.
Unfortunately, this political divide is crossing the border, as we saw during the siege that paralyzed Ottawa for three weeks.
Let’s agree: that people demonstrate against health measures is completely legitimate. But when their goal is to overthrow the government, things go wrong.
We would have liked all elected officials to condemn this attack on democracy with one voice. But no.
All parties emerged with a black eye from this sad episode that further undermined Canadians’ confidence in democratic institutions.
As proof, the majority of the population believe that government leaders are deliberately trying to deceive them, a jump of 12 points2.
There is an urgent need to restore trust, which has been undermined in particular by social networks, where hatred and misinformation are cultivated, where people are divided instead of encouraging constructive dialogue.
Because while our democracies are tearing themselves apart, dictatorships are taking advantage of our weaknesses to score points.
We must not hide in the sand: the invasion of Ukraine risks inspiring other autocratic regimes, seeing that the democracies have remained idly by.
It is true that the world powers managed to work together to impose sanctions on Russia. So much the better.
But in the short term, these sanctions will not make Russia back down, especially since China is on its side. And the Middle Kingdom, whose economy has grown three times faster than that of the United States since 1990, is today the second world power.
This gives the guts to its leaders to assert to the world the superiority of their autocratic regime. With the invasion of Ukraine, China may now be tempted to take control of Taiwan.
As you can see, the planet splits in two. And in this new world order, Canada is badly positioned, since its international policy is based on respect for international rules, for major institutions like the UN… whose Security Council is now paralyzed by China and Russia.
The number of people living in a democracy has dropped to 46% in 2021, according to The Economist3. A considerable decline of almost 4 points. And 2022 does not bode much better. Unless we find ways to work together.