National Bank economists are lowering their growth forecast for the Quebec economy for 2022 due to the severity of health restrictions against COVID-19 that have been reinstated since December.
Posted at 11:07 a.m.
Thus, BN economists subtracted half a percentage point (0.5%) from their forecast of 3.3% growth in real GDP for the Quebec economy that they had updated just a short time ago. more than a month.
Lowered from 3.3% to 2.8%, their economic growth forecast for Quebec in 2022 slips to last place among their real GDP forecasts among the 10 Canadian provinces.
In addition, the growth gap that was already unfavorable to Quebec is widening compared to Ontario, forecast for 4.4% GDP growth in 2022, and the Canadian economy as a whole, whose growth is expected at 4.1%.
What explanations from the economists of the National Bank?
“Never has the gap in the strictness of the health measures imposed on Quebecers been so great compared to the national average. However, COVID hospitalizations in intensive care in Quebec are within the average for industrialized countries, and the vaccination campaign in Quebec is a great success that would be the envy of many countries,” said the chief economist of the National Bank. , Stéfane Marion, in a special note sent Monday morning to the bank’s client-investors.
Consequently, notes Mr. Marion, “we are already obliged to reduce our estimate of real GDP growth in Quebec by more than half a percentage point for 2022.”