The wave of respiratory viruses that has hit Quebec since the fall, combined with the subvariants of Omicron, generated significant excess mortality at the end of the year: approximately 20% more deaths than expected were observed.
According to data released Thursday by the Institut de la statistique du Québec (ISQ), this excess mortality, mainly driven by COVID-19, has hovered around 10% since July, but jumped at the end of November to around 20% during the last weeks of 2022. The most recent information is from December 17.
“Cause of death data tell us it’s not just COVID, deaths [qu’elle a causés] have remained fairly stable since the summer, but especially the respiratory viruses and the flu which have had an impact on the recent excess mortality,” explains Frédéric Fleury-Payeur, expert demographer at the ISQ.
If we compare these figures to those normally expected for this period of the year, Quebec experienced, from the end of November to the beginning of December, a much higher excess mortality than usual. “The normal surplus at this time of year fluctuates by plus or minus 6% from week to week. But when we have reached 280 more deaths than expected in one week, it is significant, ”says the demographer.
Quebec, the United States and Europe
For a rare time since the start of the pandemic, Quebec posted excess mortality in December – 20% from all causes combined – higher than that reported in several neighboring American states (12% in New York State and 6% in Massachusetts , notably). Since the seventh wave of COVID, in May 2022, Quebec has posted a record comparable to that of the United States in terms of excess deaths (10% excess mortality, compared to 9.6%), indicates the ISQ in its report.
But these figures are to be taken with nuance, according to Mr. Fleury-Payeur, insofar as the data from several American states are preliminary and often revised upwards in the months that follow.
One thing is certain, the excess mortality gap observed between Quebec and the United States shrunk to a trickle in this year punctuated by the arrival of Omicron. Despite everything, we cannot conclude that the current excess mortality in Quebec is worse or even comparable to that of our neighbours, believes Mr. Fleury: if we compare the whole of 2022, the excess mortality in Quebec currently reaches 8% on average, compared to 11% in the United States.
In addition, if we examine the situation since the start of the pandemic, the cumulative excess mortality reaches 15% in the United States, compared to 5.4% in Quebec, or three times less. “The United States already has a higher mortality at the base than that of the population of Quebec, and they have remained in excess mortality for two years. So in absolute terms the gap is much bigger and the life expectancy deficit there is much bigger,” he says.
At the end of the year, excess mortality in Quebec also seemed higher than in Europe, where excess deaths were well below the 20% observed here. But since then, figures from the EuroMOMO network, which compiles mortality data in 24 European countries, show that several of them are seriously affected by the “tripandemic” fueled by recent Omicron subvariants, influenza and others. respiratory viruses. “In November, several countries in Europe observed less excess mortality than here, but at the moment the figures reach up to 33% of excess deaths reported for the penultimate week of 2022, in particular in Germany”, explains the demographer Fleury-Payeur.
The Omicron effect
We already know that the arrival of Omicron made 2022 the deadliest year of the pandemic after 2020, with 5,688 deaths. But the recent wave of respiratory viruses has added to this already grim toll.
The ISQ data also show that the excess mortality due to Omicron has hit the regions of Quebec more (other than Montreal, Laval, Montérégie and Lanaudière), and that COVID has caused the death of more people there than in any other time of the pandemic, with a peak of excess mortality of 34% observed in January 2022. The regions remained in excess mortality almost all year, with a rebound in the fall (around 15%).
The Montreal and Laval regions have remained under-mortality since June 2020, except after the arrival of Omicron and during brief episodes of the 6e and 7e waves. “We are still seeing this harvest effect there due to the large number of people who died in 2020. But what is certain is that the Omicron wave affected the regions much more in terms of excess mortality. »
According to the first data collected by the ISQ, mortality due to respiratory viruses has slowed down in recent weeks. The winter mortality peak anticipated each year in December and January could have occurred earlier this year, due to the early arrival of the influenza season, and thus reserve a calmer month of January for Quebecers.
But we will have to wait for the organization’s next assessment to find out if the worst is indeed behind us.