The European elections confirmed the breakthrough of several far-right parties, notably in France and Austria. If the aid policy for Ukraine should not be called into question, its accession could be delayed.
A relative breakthrough, but notable. The European elections, Sunday June 9, were marked by the progression of several far-right parties in several EU member countries and therefore in the hemicycle of Brussels and Strasbourg. In France, the National Rally list, led by Jordan Bardella, came well ahead of the vote with 31.37% of the votes and obtained 30 seats in the European Parliament, according to the final results. The Identity and Democracy (ID) group, in which RN MEPs sit so far, has a total of 58 elected officials.
The European Conservatives and Reformists (CRE) obtained 73, including elected officials from Giorgia Meloni’s far-right Fratelli d’Italia party. The CRE group thus becomes the fourth political force in the European Parliament, behind the European People’s Party (EPP), the Socialists and Democrats (S&D) and the centrists of Renew Europe. Nearly 20% of seats in the European Parliament are therefore occupied by elected representatives from the radical right or far right, not to mention certain MEPs affiliated to any of these groups.
Will this rise in power call into question European support for Ukraine, attacked for more than two years by neighboring Russia? Moscow follows “carefully” this evolution of the balance of power within Europe. “We can see the dynamics of right-wing parties gaining popularity”pointed out Kremlin spokesperson Dmitri Peskov, while the question of EU support for kyiv now arises.
The Partij voor de Vrijheid (PVV) of Geert Wilders, a far-right group that came first in the legislative elections in the Netherlands, has already criticized the sending of military aid to Ukraine, as noted the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF) think tank. Across the Rhine, the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party, which came second with 15.9% of the vote, also denounces the sanctions taken against Russia. Its head of the European list, Maximilian Krah, is even suspected of proximity to Moscow and Beijing. He has since been excluded from the party’s delegation of MEPs. In France, Jordan Bardella recently called for “support Ukraine” but to “avoid any risk of escalation with Russia”.
The influence of these MEPs on the subject could nevertheless be limited. “Overall, Parliament has little control over aid to Ukraine”underlines Sébastien Maillard, specialist in European issues and former director of the Jacques-Delors Institute. Within the EU, foreign policy decisions are primarily a matter for of the scope of the leaders of the Twenty-Seven, within the European Council. Although it does not define the guidelines, the European Parliament can nevertheless influence through its budgetary powers.
As the site Vie-publique.fr reminds us, the institution represents “budgetary authority” with the Council of the EU: MEPs vote on the draft annual budget and must approve the multiannual financial framework (MFF) or long-term budget of the EU. “Parliament also has competence in industrial matters., recalls Gesine Weber, researcher with the GMF. If the hemicycle decides, for example, against a strengthening of the European defense industry, “this risks threatening support for Ukraine.”
In the opinion of the German Marshall Fund of the United States, a more right-wing European Parliament could also call into question “ambitious sustainable reconstruction projects”, environmentally friendly, in Ukraine. On this theme, the extreme right has already largely torpedoed the measures in favor of the climate to garner votes.
The EU’s long-term budget runs until 2027. It was recently revised and “reinforced”, “in order to finance priorities such as support for Ukraine, migration and external action”, note the European Council and the Council of the EU. For the next budget, in three years, “we don’t know where the war will be, but with the new composition of Parliament, I’m not very worried about the general line of support for Ukraine”, believes Gesine Weber.
“The European Parliament is moving a little to the right, but the far right is not making the significant gains that had been anticipated. For Ukraine, this is very good news.”
Gesine Weber, researcherat franceinfo
Far-right elected officials, even if they are more numerous, also remain divided on their relationship with Russia. The Identity and Democracy group and the non-registered MEPs of Fidesz, the party of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, follow a rather pro-Russian line. Within the CRE group, Italian and Polish elected officials, on the contrary, show clear support for Ukraine. Viktor Orban and Marine Le Pen are pleading for rapprochements, but nothing has yet been decided. “The CRE group has a transatlantic line, very pro-Ukraine. These are two guidelines, not necessarily negotiable”, notes Gesine Weber. The possible arrival of Fidesz elected officials in the group should not, in his eyes, call this approach into question.
The recomposition (or not) of these groups – with the central question of the choice of the RN and its 30 elected officials – will take shape over the coming weeks. For the researcher, “even if there is an openly pro-Russian group, this will not change the general consensus existing in Parliament.” A “sanitary cord” still prevents the extreme right from reaching positions of responsibility and the institution “has always been very strongly in favor of supporting Ukraine, with a very firm stance towards Russia.” Even Dmitri Peskov recognizes it: in the European Parliament, “the majority will be pro-European and pro-Ukrainian”.
But beyond Parliament, “the European elections have created a political climate which may be unfavorable to aid to Ukraine”, believes Sébastien Maillard. At the European Council, Viktor Orban has until now been isolated in his attempts to block. At the beginning of February, European leaders managed to find an agreement on aid of 50 billion euros, finding a way out of the Hungarian veto. With the progression of the far right, the Hungarian Prime Minister “could find other allies or governments more attentive to the messages sent by the ballot boxes.”
“This can lead to countries being much more hesitant.”
Sébastien Maillard, specialist in European issuesat franceinfo
Sébastien Maillard takes the example of Austria, where legislative elections are expected at the end of September. Pro-Russian, the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (FPÖ) favorite share. With a new victory, “unanimity for new sanctions against Russia could be harder won.”
In France, support for kyiv is also called into question, given the political crisis the country is going through. Emmanuel Macron will continue to represent France at the European Council and, “legally, ministers take the green light given by the European Council and ratify the political agreements reached between European institutions, without calling them into question”, points out Sébastien Maillard. But in the case of a majority and a far-right government, ministers from the National Rally could be tempted to contradict the position of the Elysée.
Finally, the question arises of a possible membership of the European Union. Last month, several member states called for opening negotiations for Ukraine and Moldova before the start of Hungary’s presidency of the EU Council, from July 1. In a Europe where the far right is on the rise, “we risk seeing a change in the calendar”anticipates Nathalie Brack, professor of political science at the Free University of Brussels (ULB). “With the need to reform the EU before enlargement, there are fears of moving too quickly, that this will play into the hands of the radical right.”
“There will not be a U-turn and abandonment of enlargement, but it could be less central to the agenda in the coming years.”
Nathalie Brack, professor of political scienceat franceinfo
For this specialist in Euroscepticism, debates on enlargement and reforms of European institutions often give “a voice for Eurosceptics. This gives them a platform to mobilize on this subject”, she notes. And on these questions, “They manage to have clear messages, not at all nuanced.” But which hit the mark with part of the electorate.