What would Europe and France do without Russian gas? This is the question that panics the European markets, Monday, March 7, while the war in Ukraine and the threat of new economic sanctions against Russia are causing prices to soar. The megawatt-hour reached 345 euros two days ago, up 60%. Nothing is currently preventing Russian gas deliveries to Europe – 40% of the continent’s supply – and Moscow has not decided to cut off or limit the tap. But this possibility is less and less improbable. If so, what are the possible alternatives?
Russian gas represents 20% of our consumption
If we are to believe the main French gas operators, there is nothing to be optimistic about, according to Catherine Mc Gregor, boss of Engie. “If such a decision were to be made, then next winter we could come, Europe could run out of gas”, she declared on France Inter, Monday morning. Patrick Pouyanné, CEO of Totalenergie, was not more reassuring 10 days ago, during a specialized forum: “Gas, there is an infrastructure problem. And so when I am told what you do if the 40% of Russian gas disappears, then there, I can tell you, I don’t know how to do it.”
France is facing two problems: replacing the missing quantities and above all maintaining prices at an acceptable level. For the quantities, we are not, on paper, in the worst situation. Russia is our second supplier. It sends us a little less than 20% of the gas we consume, far behind our main supplier, Norway, on which we depend for more than 40% of our consumption. But these figures are misleading because on the one hand, Norway’s production is declining, like all those of the countries of Northern Europe, and on the other hand, the gas network being European, France is interconnected with its neighbors. And it is bound by the principle of solidarity: if German consumers do not have enough gas, they can draw it from France.
Have infrastructure for liquefied natural gas
There is still gas elsewhere than in Europe, but you still have to be able to buy it. For example, for American liquefied gas, it is necessary to offer more attractive prices than the Chinese, the Japanese or the Koreans, who also benefit from secure contracts. Finally, there is infrastructure. If we want liquefied natural gas, we also need factories, gas terminals, which allow the gas to pass from the liquid state to the gaseous state, an essential step in order to be able to use it.
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France has four terminals but they have all almost reached saturation. But to build others, it takes three to four years. Germany, for example, does not have a gas terminal. That said, on the price side, France may be less dependent on Russia for supplies, but it still pays the European market price.
Last option: consume less
Faced with the current difficulties, there are at least proposals. The first is to play on consumption. Europeans, including the French, could be asked to lower the heating next winter. One degree less in Europe means 10 billion cubic meters saved, according to the International Energy Agency. The IEA is also asking consumers not to renew their expiring contracts with Gazprom.
Other energies could replace natural gas, but there is no miracle solution either. The coal ? It is the most polluting energy and what is more, Russia is also the first producer. Renewable energies ? The AIE recommends speeding up and making the procedures more flexible. But Catherine Mc Gregor, CEO of Engie, believes that even in this case, it will not be possible to offset the gas from next winter. Finally there is biomethane, green gas, produced from agricultural materials. It is still little exploited and will not make it possible to compensate for Russian gas if it were to run out.