The Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) would now garner as many voting intentions as the Bloc Québécois in Quebec, according to a new poll by the firm Abacus Data.
Pierre Poilievre’s party has been on a roll for over a year across the country, but Quebec remains the only province where it has failed to take the lead, held back by support for the Bloc.
The Conservatives now have 31% of the vote, compared to 30% for the Bloc, according to this new poll. Justin Trudeau’s Liberals come in third, with 24%, followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 12%. The Abacus Data poll was conducted among 1,550 Canadians, from July 31 to August 7.
Caution is advised, however, since this could be a statistical anomaly, warns Philippe J. Fournier, creator of the 338Canada electoral projection model. “The CPC’s numbers are probably too high. But the fact that it’s in this range implies that the Conservatives are no longer around 17%, as they were for 15 years in Quebec,” he says.
In June, the Léger firm gave 26% of voting intentions to the Conservatives, tied with the Liberals, but behind the Bloc Québécois, at 31%.
“What surprised me most were the Bloc’s figures. […] The fact that it is only at 30% clearly indicates that the Conservatives are taking votes from the Liberals, and are also capping the Bloc,” analyzes Philippe J. Fournier.
The Conservatives currently hold 9 seats in Quebec, much less than the Bloc Québécois (32) and the Liberals (34).
On summer tour
Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has made numerous appearances across Quebec this summer, visiting several ridings he believes he can win in the next election. During his speeches, he has not hesitated to attack the Bloc Québécois, which he falsely accuses of forming a coalition with the Liberal government.
The CPC has no shortage of financial means to make itself known in Quebec, with the party having pocketed more than $20 million in donations since the beginning of the year, surpassing the Liberals by $13 million. The leader made his summer tour in a recreational vehicle featuring a photo of his family and the message of “common sense,” his party’s slogan.
Last week, Bloc Québécois leader Yves-François Blanchet began a tour of the Magdalen Islands, where a heated battle is expected between Bloc candidate Kristina Michaud and Liberal minister Diane Lebouthillier in the next election.
Nationwide, the Conservatives are ahead of the Liberals by about 20 points, and remain in the lead in every demographic group.
The next federal election is scheduled for October 2025, but it could come earlier if the NDP ends its support agreement with the Liberals.