The race for the leadership of the Conservative Party has not yet started – neither the date nor the rules are even known – that, already, the divisions are bursting into the open between conservatives supporters of a harder right , social conservatives and conservative progressives.
Posted at 6:00 a.m.
MP Pierre Poilievre has already launched his campaign even before ousted leader Erin O’Toole had time to move out of the opposition leader’s office. The goal is obvious: a cannon start, to occupy the field and, if possible, give an impression of inevitability to his candidacy.
Already, he could count on the support of fifteen Conservative MPs and also important organizers, such as Senator Léo Housakos.
But Mr. Poilievre is a divisive personality, capable of the best and the worst and, above all, he is known to be merciless to his opponents, even if it means continuing to fight even when they have given up.
And this is what puts off some of its potential supporters. We see him as brittle and ready to do anything to score political points. Which means he probably won’t win the “politician you’d like to go have a beer with” contest.
His conservatism is first and foremost economic – more of a libertarian tendency, his campaign launch video amply demonstrates this, including on “vaccination freedom”. But it is anti-elite, anti-media populist rhetoric that is its trademark and it joins conservatives in seeking a kind of Canadian-style Trumpism.
On the other hand, he no longer agrees with the positions of the so-called social right on questions such as abortion and gay marriage. When he was testing the waters for a possible candidacy to succeed Andrew Scheer, he announced that he had changed his mind on these issues.
What bothers him is that he has no support among Quebec MPs and that Erin O’Toole’s Quebec lieutenant, Alain Rayes, resigned from his post to be able to support a “progressive” candidate. “, from the center right, in the race for leadership, which means, even if he denies it, a candidate other than Pierre Poilievre.
On the side of the Quebec deputies, some have made calls to Jean Charest, former Conservative leader and Prime Minister of Quebec, who had considered running in 2020. He is a Progressive Conservative whom they would like to see return to service.
But many doubt that at 63, the man who left politics almost a decade ago and who has an enviable career in the business world – he has just been appointed to the board of directors of CN – is still interested. by the leadership of the Conservative Party.
Moreover, it is an open secret that former Prime Minister Stephen Harper does not like Mr. Charest. He had been agitating to block his way in 2020 and no one doubts he would do it again if needed.
As Progressives search for a candidate they could support, political columnist Tasha Kheiriddin, former cabinet minister and late Progressive Conservative leader Peter MacKay and former Ontario Conservative leader and Brampton mayor Patrick Brown are also tipped, but, for now, “they’re the ones making the calls, they’re not getting that many,” says a conservative source.
Two members of the caucus could also be in the race, namely MP Leslyn Lewis, who would once again be the pro-life candidate, and Alberta MP Michele Rempel Garner, who would like to pose as a compromise candidate, despite her social positions on gay marriage, for example.
But all of this puts the Quebec Conservative MPs in a delicate situation. They want at all costs to avoid their new leader spending his time explaining his positions on issues such as abortion, as Andrew Scheer was forced to do.
But above all they want the party to modify its political offer. That it finally has a credible environmental platform, for example. But it’s still a little difficult when delegates to the last Conservative convention refused to acknowledge the reality of climate change.
To be elected leader, it will be necessary to please the base, the members of the Conservative Party who will vote to choose their new leader. A much more right-wing base than the majority of Canadians. And a significant portion of that base has become radicalized in recent years and openly admire former President Trump and drink to Fox News rather than Canadian media.
Normally, this should help the candidacy of Pierre Poilievre, especially since his canonical departure risks discouraging potential candidates.
The problem is likely to arise during the election campaign, when traditionally the party must, in order to have a chance of winning, move closer to the center without alienating the party’s base – precisely what cost Erin O’Toole his job.