If you feel like deja vu, your memory is good.
Posted at 5:00 a.m.
In 2016, François Legault promised to launch a “James Bay of the 21ste century “. He abandoned the idea at the start of his mandate. Due to energy surpluses, the project became useless.
Six years later, the CAQ leader returns to the charge. He promises to add 3000 MW of wind sources and dreams of a new hydroelectric dam that would supply Quebec and its neighbors.
“It’s nonsense,” scoffed Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois.
True, we do not know on which river the dam would be built, or when or at what cost. Still, we cannot accuse Mr. Legault of lacking vision. He is preparing for the decarbonization of the economy of northeastern North America and he wants Quebec to benefit from it.
The current power distribution network is inefficient and disconnected. As experts have already argued, Quebec and its neighbors should work together to avoid waste1. Mr. Legault has been talking about it since at least 2018.
Québec solidaire (QS) is thinking about greenhouse gas emission targets for 2030. To achieve them, the renewable energy projects already announced will suffice. The key will be to reduce consumption and waste. But 2030 is only a stage. The work will have to continue in order to become carbon neutral in 2050. And for this, new sources of clean energy will be required.
Hence the dialogue of the deaf. QS is interested in the first deadline while the Coalition avenir Québec is considering the second.
However, both should be done at the same time.
History has often humiliated forecasters.
In the early 2000s, it was anticipated that oil would become rarer. The opposite happened.
In Quebec too, the crystal balls were fogged up.
10 years ago, the costly surpluses of Hydro-Québec caused a scandal. This problem then became an opportunity to attract heavy industries. And the “problem” now solves itself. Because the surpluses have melted away.
In April, Quebec had to launch two calls for tenders for wind energy (1000 MW) and renewable energy (1300 MW). However, he will soon run out of energy. By 2050, the Crown corporation predicts that Quebec will have a deficit of 100 TWh. That is the equivalent of 12 times the La Romaine complex.
It is enormous.
We forget that just over 50% of the energy consumed in Quebec comes from oil and gas. It will have to be replaced. Although energy efficiency should be the priority, it will not be enough.
What to do ? Wind and solar power are being built quickly. On the other hand, their energy is intermittent and does not store well.
Hydroelectricity complements them thanks to its predictability and large storage capacity. This makes it a “green battery”. However, its cost is considerable. And since the site must be launched in advance according to a hypothesis on the evolution of the market, the bet is risky.
Hydro-Québec has often changed its discourse.
When presenting his 2020-2024 strategic plan, boss Éric Martel did not rule out building a new hydroelectric power station. Then, shortly after taking office, his successor Sophie Brochu had to submit a new plan – the fresh forecasts had already expired.
The new plan foresees a larger deficit. This explains why Mr. Legault returns to the charge.
Strategically, this allows him to respond to the climate plans of the PQ and solidarity while talking about the economy. Still, it could be more consistent. If Quebec lacks energy, why waste it by encouraging solo driving?
This is not the first time that Mr. Legault has taken up an idea already promoted by Hydro-Québec.
At the start of his term, the CAQ leader boasted of negotiating export contracts with New England, a fine project which had, however, been launched by the state-owned company and the former Liberal government.
With large dams, he ventures into abandoned territory.
The Charest government had identified rivers to be exploited, such as the Petit Mécatina River, on the North Shore. But that would have flooded the equivalent of half of the island of Montreal and the Innu agreement was not certain. A little to the west, an alliance has also recently formed to protect the Magpie River.
Where to go then? The renegotiation with Newfoundland of the Churchill Falls contract, which will expire in 2041, could lead to new projects.
Certainly, no project will be easy. The construction will have a considerable impact on the fauna and flora, and the communities concerned have learned from the past.
But on the other hand, we cannot fight the climate crisis in a vacuum. The northeast of the continent will need clean energy, and it will have to come from somewhere…
Will we find a source that is less harmful to the environment? This is the debate to be had. Mr. Legault is happy to get ahead of him to force his opponents to ask themselves difficult questions that he himself is not afraid to answer.