The Syrian workforce plays a crucial role in Turkey’s textile industry, with many companies relying heavily on their labor. Concerns are rising about potential labor shortages due to political changes, which could exacerbate existing challenges like inflation. Experts suggest that while fears of a mass exodus may be overstated, uncertainties remain. Strategies are being explored to maintain production, including potential workshops in Syria, alongside proposals for facilitating trade relations through a system akin to the European Schengen area.
The impact of the Syrian workforce on Turkey’s textile industry is profound. Ali Gozcu, director of ALG Tekstil, emphasizes that losing this labor force could lead to a significant crisis within the sector.
While the Syrian community has been celebrating the recent political changes, Turkish businesses, particularly those dependent on Syrian labor, are acutely aware of the potential repercussions. Gozcu, based in Gaziantep—a city just two hours from Aleppo—notes that the local population includes around half a million Syrians.
He expresses that while an immediate mass departure is not anticipated, the consequences would be dire if it were to occur, as nearly 70% of his workforce comprises Syrians.
Gozcu’s concerns are echoed by others in the industry. Yusuf Samil Kandil, a quality controller at Beni Giy, also highlights that the entire workforce at his company is Syrian. He warns that if these workers leave, both labor and production costs will increase sharply.
Turkey ranks as the sixth-largest textile producer globally, with a significant portion of this industry situated in its southeast, where the majority of the 2.9 million Syrian refugees reside.
Although approximately 100,000 Syrians hold work permits, estimates suggest that closer to one million are employed across various sectors, including textiles. The loss of this workforce could devastate an industry already battling rising inflation and costs, with Kandil likening it to ‘pouring salt on an open wound.’
As of late January, the Turkish Ministry of Interior reported over 81,000 returns to Syria since the political shift. This number is expected to rise around June, coinciding with the Eid celebrations and the end of the school year.
The Workforce Dilemma
At ALG, young workers diligently operate their sewing machines, creating thousands of t-shirts under the newly adopted three-star Syrian flag. Zekeriya Bozo, a seasoned worker, points out that if the Syrian labor force departs, the company would face a critical shortage, with 80 to 90% of employees being Syrian.
However, experts argue that fears of a mass exodus may be exaggerated, given the ongoing uncertainty in Syria. Professor Murat Erdogan notes that while the Syrian community is pleased with the political changes, significant challenges remain for their return, including safety concerns and damaged infrastructure.
Many Syrian refugees have built their lives in Turkey, with over 970,000 births recorded over the past twelve years. Despite facing tough working conditions, they recognize that Turkey offers better opportunities than Syria. According to Erdogan, only about 20% of Syrians in Turkey are likely to return, and that will take time.
Exploring New Avenues for Production
In anticipation of potential workforce disruptions, Ali Gozcu is considering strategies to sustain production. He mentions the possibility of opening workshops in Syria for his employees who may struggle to return.
Despite the challenges posed by the current state of Syria, including frequent power shortages, migration expert Kemal Kirisci sees a future for trade relations. He envisions a system akin to the European Schengen area that would facilitate movement between Turkey, Syria, Jordan, and Lebanon.
This initiative, known as ‘ShamGen,’ was proposed in 2010 but halted due to the ongoing conflict in Syria. Kirisci believes that such a system would be beneficial for both the Turkish economy and Syria’s recovery.