Climate Change | Will there still be Winter Games at the end of the century?

The Beijing Olympics are the first ever in history where snow did not fall from the sky. Rather, it was 100% manufactured by the Chinese authorities. However, the situation will not improve because of climate change. According to a recent study, only one city among those who have already done so would still be able to host the Winter Games in 2080. Close-up on the uncertain future of winter competitions.

Eric-Pierre Champagne
The Press

Less and less snow

A major trend is taking hold at the Winter Games: events without natural snow. The Beijing Games mark the imagination when 100% of the snow was made mechanically. During the Games in PyeongChang, South Korea, in 2018, the proportion of artificial snow was 90%. Four years earlier, in Sochi, Russia, 80% of the snow was unnatural.

Host cities disappearing… like snow

Due to climate change, the chances of being able to hold the Winter Olympics are dwindling at high speed. The Canada Research Chair in Global Change and Tourism at the University of Waterloo is looking into the matter.

In 2014, one of his studies concluded that half of the cities that have hosted the Winter Games since 1924 could not present these events in 2080.

In another study published in 2019, the holder of the Chair, geographer Daniel Scott, and his team concluded that among the 21 cities that have already hosted the Games, only 12 could do so again in 2080. This scenario would be possible in the condition that the targets of the Paris Agreement are met, in order to limit global warming to 1.5 ℃. Otherwise, if the trend continues, only eight cities could host the Winter Games again in 2080.

From eight cities to one

In a brand new study, Daniel Scott and his team conclude that only one city could once again host the Winter Games in 2080 – namely Sapporo, in Japan –, at least if current trends continue. In an increasingly improbable scenario where warming would be limited to 1.5℃, eight cities could still present winter competitions in 2080. Recall that according to the latest UN estimates, the world is heading towards a warming of 2 .7℃ by the end of the century. Global greenhouse gas emissions are also predicted to rise by 16% by 2030.

The opinion of coaches and athletes

Researchers at the University of Waterloo refined their model taking into account the opinions of 339 high-performance athletes and coaches from 20 countries. The disciplines targeted included alpine skiing, cross-country skiing, snowboarding and ski jumping. An analysis grid with four criteria (snow depth, presence of “wet snow”, episodes of rain and “unacceptable” temperatures) was used to assess to what extent the conditions would be safe for the athletes, taking into account the impacts climate change.

Climate change is real

“That’s one of the reasons we did this study,” explains geographer Daniel Scott. We want the public to understand that climate change is real. We believe that if it is athletes talking about it, it will perhaps resonate more than the discourse of scientists. The vast majority (90%) of athletes and coaches who participated in the study said they were “concerned about climate change and want to participate in the debate”.

And skiing in Quebec?

The most recent data on the future of ski resorts in Quebec date from 2019. A study by the Ouranos consortium established that the total length of the ski season would be reduced by 10 to 20 days by 2050 and that ski resorts ski resorts could lose up to 30% of their runs. To date, 84% of the members of the Association des stations de ski du Québec have a snowmaking system. But if the trend continues, “artificial” snow may not be enough by the end of the century. In Sutton, for example, Ouranos predicts up to 208 mm of winter rain starting in 2071. The average winter temperature in Sutton would be -1.2℃.