The problem with polls or intention to vote polls is that you have to choose. But this choice only imperfectly reflects the complexity of our opinions on issues as well as people. If we could choose à la carte, we would want such and such a candidate from the blue party to apply such and such an aspect of the program of the green party, or vice versa. Or we would form a whole government just with our favorite personalities, drawn from all the teams. How to know ? An instrument was made available to us at the junction of 2022 and 2023 to better understand the phenomenon: the Léger poll on the popularity of political figures carried out for the Quebecor empire.
There are three ways to read its results. First, the sum of the good opinions collected by someone. François Legault, for example, obtains a rate of 62%, at the top of the pyramid of good grades. Then there is the appreciation score. Does a minister get as many bad opinions as good ones? His appreciation score is then zero. This is particularly the case of Jean Boulet. Finally, there is the notoriety itself. How many people don’t have the faintest idea of your existence, despite years of yelling at you in front of the microphones? 68% of citizens do not know who François-Philippe Champagne is, 70% cannot say who Sol Zanetti is. Hard.
Opposition party leaders pay particular attention to these figures, because their main occupation is to exist in the minds of citizens, despite their inability to do anything but criticize those who decide. They look at the appreciation score and notoriety. The highlight of the show this time is Paul St-Pierre Plamondon (PSPP), whose appreciation score is +26%, just behind François Legault with +29%. But Legault is only unknown to 4% of Quebecers, so he can’t make much progress. PSPP is fortunate to still be unknown to 30% of voters. He therefore has progress space available. He deserves to be known.
Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois’ appreciation score is +13%, with only 16% of people not replacing him. He failed to outclass Manon Massé (+15%), including among Quebec solidaire voters, who still give the female spokesperson a slight preference.
Among the Liberals, Marc Tanguay is, in every way, in the red, at -3%. But it remains for the moment politically invisible for 68% of citizens. Everything has to be done. Éric Duhaime is not so lucky. Only 21% of Quebecers are unaware of its existence, while 57% have formed a negative opinion about it, against 22% of favorable opinions. Note, 22% is more than his electoral score (13%), but the slope of progress looks steep.
Faithless supporters
It is amusing to note that the voters of each party are sometimes happily faithless. CAQ voters have a very good opinion of PSPP (55%) and Yves-François Blanchet (53%). The PQ, they adore François Legault (69%) and prefer the federalist Geneviève Guilbault (69%) to the solidarity Massé (62%) and Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois (58%), all the same mostly well estimated.
Solidarity only partially returns the elevator, preferring Justin Trudeau (64%) to Paul St-Pierre Plamondon (51%), who still beats Sol Zanetti (40%). The favorite political personality of Quebec Liberal voters is Justin Trudeau (75%), who is ahead of whom? Solidarity Massé (41%) (!), which itself is ahead of … the current Liberal leader Tanguay (39%), himself barely more appreciated than the opponent Legault (37%). Entertaining, right?
Leadership Race Trailers
The opinions on our federal representatives are also worth the detour. Justin Trudeau’s appreciation score is certainly negative, at -2%, but his base of favorable support is substantial, at 47%, and still promises him good electoral results in Quebec. But if he were to leave his job as Prime Minister one day, which of his Quebec ministers would be best placed to succeed him? The thing is understood: Mélanie Joly! She ranks ninth among the most popular political figures in Quebec, with 46% positive opinions and an appreciation score of +22%, and is significantly better placed than her potential rival François-Philippe Champagne, certainly appreciated by 21% of Quebecers, but unknown, as we have seen, for the majority. Joly is also appreciated by CAQ voters (57%), Liberals (52%), Solidarity (41%) and is more popular among Quebec Conservatives (27%) than the real Conservative Gérard Deltell (23%). This survey therefore gives him a lot of credibility to establish his eventual campaign in Quebec. It remains to be seen who will be her opponents from English Canada, while it is believed that the presumed runner-up, Chrystia Freeland, will bow out to work in an international organization.
The survey also gives us the starting order for a possible caquist leadership race, for the day when François Legault would bow out. Geneviève Guilbault is far ahead among CAQ voters (79%), followed by the convert Bernard Drainville (64%), who thus causes surprise upon his arrival. Potential suitors Sonia LeBel and Simon Jolin-Barrette trail around 55%. These figures imperfectly reflect the order of popularity of each of them in general opinion, their appreciation score being positive in this order: Guilbault +36%, LeBel +24%, Drainville +16%, Jolin- Barrette +8%. The future of the CAQ, and perhaps of Quebec, will depend on the evolution of the popularity of these four ministers. A Guilbault-Drainville clash in a race that would take place, say, in 2025 would embody a crucial choice: a complete closure to the idea of independence at Guilbault, a half-open door to the country at Drainville. The membership cards of the CAQ would fly on this occasion like hot cakes, federalists and separatists investing the party to make triumph its favorite candidate.
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