Choice of French Prime Minister | “The message from the electorate is: do you hear each other?”

How do you appoint a prime minister who represents the choice of French voters… when you can’t agree on the electorate’s choice? This is the knot that President Emmanuel Macron must untie, six weeks after the legislative elections. Interview with Daniel Boy, emeritus research director at Sciences Po, whom we reached in the Paris region.

This Friday, President Emmanuel Macron will meet with party leaders to try to form a government. The results of the second round gave about a third of the vote to the far right, another third to the right and Emmanuel Macron’s centrist party, and then a final third, slightly heavier, to the coalition of left-wing parties, the New Popular Front (NFP). Is this an unprecedented situation?

This is a very strange situation. It was not at all foreseen in the logic of the V^e Republic, built in opposition to the IV^e Republic [de 1946 à 1958, période caractérisée par l’instabilité politique d’une succession de gouvernements]. The V^e The Republic had finally managed to find a system where we had parliamentary majorities. And as long as we had two blocs, left and right, it worked.

But now we are in a ternary system, with a third far-right group [Rassemblement national, RN] which makes a good third. It doesn’t work anymore. No one can achieve an absolute majority. So, yes, it’s an unprecedented situation.

Since none of the blocs has an absolute majority, they must therefore agree to find a candidate who achieves consensus. Isn’t this what happens in countries where there is a system of proportional representation?

In France, we have reached a situation that we would have had with a proportional representation system, like in the countries of northern Europe, in Belgium, in Germany. But in these countries, alliances are created after the elections. We look at how many deputies each has obtained, and then we discuss. Sometimes, it takes months. And we end up finding a solution.

But here, the parties are still in the old logic. On the left, the NFP does not give up on the fact that, since it came in first with 28% of the votes – not an extraordinary lead – it means that it represents “the majority”. And that the president must appoint his candidate as prime minister, even if she could find herself facing a motion of censure after two days. [Le camp présidentiel, les partis de la droite ainsi que le RN menacent d’une motion de censure tout gouvernement comprenant des ministres issus de La France insoumise (LFI).]

If we were in a proportional system, it would be logical to seek agreements.

Is a union with the center and the right possible?

In President Macron’s party, Ensemble, we are not against an agreement with a part of the left of the NFP, either the Socialist Party (PS) or the Greens. The problem is that the PS and the Greens are stuck. They cannot show themselves open to an agreement because they will be immediately shot on the spot by Jean-Luc Mélenchon. [leader de LFI] or Mathilde Panot [cheffe des députés LFI] as traitors.

On the right, it is extremely difficult to find a majority. Even by bringing together the deputies Ensemble and Les Républicains [LR] – and the LR deputies are not very enthusiastic about the idea of ​​an alliance with Macron – we do not obtain a majority.

Lucie Castets, a senior civil servant at Paris City Hall, is the candidate proposed by the NFP for the post of Prime Minister. The names of former Socialist Prime Minister Bernard Cazeneuve and LR President of the Hauts-de-France region Xavier Bertrand have also been mentioned. For a few days now, the name of Socialist Karim Bouamrane has also been circulating, although he has said he is in favour of Lucie Castets’ nomination. Who is he?

This is the socialist mayor of Saint-Ouen, in Seine-Saint-Denis. There were some very positive things said about him, from the left and the right, during the Olympic Games. He was an extraordinary mayor, he managed his town well, he worked hard on the integration of immigrants, etc. Apparently, he has a very endearing and dynamic personality. He could find agreements with the left and the center, but that would be a total betrayal from the point of view of LFI.

But if the deputies cannot agree, what options remain?

There is a solution that has been imagined, that of having a strictly technical government, with senior civil servants, little or not politicized. It has never been done at this level, but it is not unthinkable.

In the editorial, the newspaper The World urged the president “to show that he has listened to the French people by appointing a prime minister who reflects their choice.” What is the choice of the French?

In the first round, we had the impression that the National Rally (RN) was going to take power. In the second round, the “republican front” made sure that left-wing voters voted for the center or the right and that right-wing voters voted for the left, to prevent RN deputies from being elected. So, the message from the electorate is: we hate you all, but it’s still the RN that we hate the most. So, listen to me.

The remarks have been edited for clarity and brevity.

Results of the French legislative elections