China supports regime facing isolation while US unofficially renews contact

The Iranian regime, isolated on the international scene, counts China among its supporters, few in number among the great powers. For their part, the United States is discussing and negotiating with Tehran, mainly on nuclear issues.

Iran is an isolated regime, in particular, due to links with international terrorism, still supporting Hamas and Hezbollah today. Officially, there has been no diplomatic relationship between the United States and Iran since the 1979 revolution. Sanctioned by the Americans several times since 1995, Iran has experienced numerous embargoes on its commercial relations, particularly on its oil exports.

Nine days before the Iranian presidential election scheduled for June 28, 2024, the campaign is focused on the economic crisis and galloping inflation. But today, China has brought the country out of this isolation, both commercially and diplomatically, and Washington is renewing dialogue to try to contain the progression of Iranian nuclear power.

China’s support for the Iranian regime was particularly demonstrated in 2023, during the visit to Beijing of President Ebrahim Raïssi, who died on May 20 in a helicopter crash. A lavish three-day state visit, which few countries in the world offer to Iranians. China allows Tehran to access its immense market, to export its products and in particular its oil. In 2023, this bilateral trade will reach $14 billion.

Thanks to China, the Tehran regime has also regained a place on the international scene, particularly since 2021, when Iran became a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a political and economic organization which brings together several Asian countries. around China and Russia. Finally, China also cooperates with Tehran in the military field, as it did a few months ago, with joint maneuvers in the Gulf of Oman.

Despite everything, China remains cautious because it knows that this support carries risks. Chinese companies that do business with Tehran can be sanctioned and excluded from the US market, which is much more important to Beijing. This is why the strategic agreement concluded with Iran in 2021 is taking a long time to come into force. The Iranians have understood the message and know that China, while being a friendly country, wishes to keep its distance, so as not to compromise its own interests.

Relations between Washington and Tehran are officially non-existent, but in fact, there is a dialogue between the two. The head of Iranian diplomacy Ali Bagheri confirmed it again at the beginning of the month: the two countries are negotiating, discreetly, in the Sultanate of Oman. These indirect discussions even began at the beginning of the year when the war between Israel and Hamas was particularly intense. This includes addressing the subject of Iranian nuclear power, at a time when the Americans’ partners on the European continent – France, Germany and the United Kingdom – have decided to submit a resolution to the Council of Governors of the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency). This resolution wants to condemn Iran’s nuclear escalation and calls it to account for its lack of cooperation.

The Americans are worried because they fear that such an initiative would only inflame tensions in the Middle East. Washington is well aware that the Iranian program is advancing, that Tehran is accumulating enriched uranium. For their part, the United States wants to avoid moving to the next stage, that is to say the atomic bomb.