China | Falling Marriages

The past three years have been brutal for young Chinese adults. Their unemployment rate is skyrocketing amid waves of corporate layoffs. The draconian restrictions imposed by the coronavirus are over, but not the sense of uncertainty about the future they have created.

For many, recent upheaval is yet another reason to put off big life decisions, contributing to record low marriage numbers and complicating government efforts to avert a demographic crisis.

Grace Zhang, a 31-year-old technician who has long been ambivalent about marriage, spent two months barricaded in Shanghai’s government lockdown last year. Deprived of the possibility of moving freely, she sank in the face of the loss of control of her existence. When she saw the lockdowns spread to other cities, her optimism faded.

When China reopened in December, Grace Zhang left Shanghai to work remotely, traveling from city to city in hopes that a change of scenery would bring her back to a positive frame of mind.

Now, as she sees layoffs multiply around her in a struggling economy, she wonders if her job is secure enough to support a future family. She has a boyfriend, but does not plan to marry immediately, although her father has often told her that it was time to settle down.

“This kind of instability in life makes people increasingly afraid to change their lives,” she said.

Divorces on the rise

The number of marriages in China has declined for nine consecutive years, falling by half in less than ten years. Last year, around 6.8 million couples got married – the lowest figure since records began in 1986 – compared to 13.5 million in 2013, according to government data released last month.

Although the number of marriages has increased in 2023 compared to the previous year, more and more marriages are also ending. In the first quarter of this year, 40,000 more couples got married compared to the same period a year earlier, but divorces rose by 127,000.

Surveys have shown that young people are deterred by the burden of sending a child to school in China’s cutthroat education system.

In cities, women are achieving new levels of financial independence and education, and marriage is no longer an economic necessity for them.

As for the men, they say they cannot afford to get married, citing cultural pressure to own a house and a car before they even start dating.

The instability of the past three years has compounded these pressures, changing the expectations of many young people when it comes to starting a family. Under its leader, Xi Jinping, China has imposed ever-tighter control over all aspects of society, which could affect the marriage rate.

“If young people don’t have faith in the future, it’s very difficult for them to consider settling down and getting married,” says Xiujian Peng, senior researcher at the University of Victoria, Australia.

Effects on the birth rate

In China, where it is extremely rare for an unmarried couple or a single person to have children, the decline in marriage is linked to the country’s declining birth rate. Last year, China’s population shrank for the first time since the early 1960s, a period marked by widespread famine.

The ruling Communist Party has engaged in a propaganda campaign to encourage people to marry and have children, even organizing state-sponsored get-togethers.

The government is testing programs in 20 cities to promote a “new era” of marriage. One of the tenets of this new era is that husbands and wives should share child-rearing responsibilities, recognizing that women in China traditionally bear most of the burden. A local government in eastern China has launched a dating app.

But it is not easy to respond to the anxieties that explain why so many people refuse marriage.

For Xu Bingqian, 23, a recent college graduate, the pandemic has upended her plans to study in Spain and enroll in graduate schools there. One of his teachers, originally from Cuba, was unable to return to China to teach due to travel restrictions. While Xu Bingqian was stuck in her dorm, arguments broke out with her roommates. They mourned the loss of their educational prospects, she said, and had few outlets for their frustration.

Xu Bingqian, who now works at a bookstore in the eastern city of Qingdao, says the disruptions have prompted her to adopt a more “cautious” approach and avoid big changes, such as seeking a boyfriend. “I can’t know whether it will be good or bad,” said Mr. Xu. I don’t want that kind of uncertainty to come into my life. »

The proportion of women aged 25 to 29 who have never married rose from 8.6% in 2000 to 40.6% in 2020 in urban areas of China, according to an analysis by Wang Feng, professor of sociology at the University of California at Irvine.

Economic competition

Many men say they delay getting married because they feel economically insecure. Due to a cultural preference for boys during the one-child policy, which ended in 2016, China has about 35 million more men than women, fueling a sense of economic competition for the wedding.

Xu Xi, 30, left a job at a multinational tech company for a state-owned enterprise this year. He wanted more job security, even though he took a 50% pay cut and now only earns US$28,000 a year.

After this change, he feels ready to propose to his girlfriend next year, but he says they have no plans to have children because the cost is prohibitive. He said many people feel poorer despite China’s growing prosperity, a feeling that will inevitably affect workers’ attitudes towards marriage. According to Chinese demographers, China is the second most expensive country in the world to raise a child, behind South Korea, when looking at economic output per capita.

“For now, I’m looking for stability and watching what’s happening in the economy,” said Xu Xi, who lives in the southwest city of Chengdu.

This article was first published in the New York Times.