War is blowing from Moscow, bombs are raining down on kyiv, but peace may be in Beijing. If the West wants to end the suffering of the Ukrainians without confronting Russia militarily, it is by putting pressure on China that it could achieve this.
“The question is not whether China has the ability to influence Vladimir Putin,” says McGill University professor Maria Popova. The question is whether she wants to do it. »
At the start of the invasion, Beijing’s support seemed unwavering. Moscow had honored the Olympic truce, allowing China to shine in the eyes of the world while Russian soldiers massed on Ukraine’s borders.
Vladimir Putin envisioned a surgical blitzkrieg, with no lasting consequences for the world order. Twenty-three days later, it seems clear that the Kremlin has given Beijing a big buck: the war drags on, consolidates Western cohesion and threatens to turn into an international conflict.
“I’m sure that the Chinese were sold a used car in poor condition, illustrates the former Canadian ambassador to China Guy Saint-Jacques. Putin must have told them that the military operation would be fast, well-conducted and limited to the east. I think Beijing is surprised by the scale of the invasion, the Ukrainian resistance and above all, by the Western solidarity. »
To better understand the war in Ukraine
Chinese President Xi Jinping also changed his tone on Friday following a two-hour meeting with his American counterpart, Joe Biden. Without condemning Russian aggression or President Vladimir Putin, Beijing admitted that “the crisis in Ukraine is not something we wanted to see”. The White House, for its part, indicates that it has warned Xi Jinping of the “implications and consequences” which would result from Chinese material support for the Russian army.
As the days go by and the dead pile up, China has more and more reason to turn away from Russia, according to experts consulted by The duty. The war provides Beijing with the opportunity to impose itself on the world stage. The Chinese dragon faces a decision: to be a dove or a falcon.
The economic argument
The more the conflict gets bogged down, the more Russia isolates itself and attracts international wrath. Beijing has everything to lose by remaining in union with a partner who has been ostracized from the world, according to the founder of the Raoul-Dandurand Chair at UQAM, Charles-Philippe David.
“It’s starting to seriously bother the Chinese,” he explains. If China loses a stable economic environment internationally, it loses the breath that swells the sails of its prosperity. »
Especially since Russia does not have the weight, in the Chinese trade balance, compared to the Western bloc. Beijing and Moscow traded US$140 billion worth of goods last year, a record amount. Meanwhile, China was doing $1.2 trillion deals with Europe and the United States, according to Eurostat and US government data.
“Russia depends much more on China than China depends on Russia”, analyzes Guy Saint-Jacques. By stubbornly waging war in Ukraine, “Moscow is becoming the vassal of Beijing”.
In a position of economic strength, President Xi Jinping could force Vladimir Putin to negotiate an end to the conflict. “The trump card in the Western game, believes Charles-Philippe David, is to say to China: ‘Do you realize how much we buy from you? If we impose sanctions on you, it will hurt us, but it will hurt you a lot too.” »
If China loses a stable economic environment internationally, it loses the breath that swells the sails of its prosperity.
The national argument
Xi Jinping must also deal with an internal politics strewn with intrigues. “His re-election is disputed, maintains Mr. Saint-Jacques. He needs good news so that at XXand Congress [du Parti communiste chinois (PCC)], the members agree to grant him a third mandate. »
Behind the screen of unity projected by the CCP, the ambitious are sharpening their knives behind the scenes. Sign that Xi Jinping does not feel so comfortably seated on his throne: it has been almost 800 days since he left his country.
The war in Ukraine could establish the authority of the Chinese leader by restoring China’s image in the eyes of the world, tarnished by the treatment reserved for the Uyghurs in Xinjiang and by the enslavement of all democratic inclinations in Hong Kong, Tibet — or on the streets of Shanghai and Beijing.
“It would be an opportunity to play a mediating role, believes Guy Saint-Jacques. It would also be an opportunity to extract concessions from the United States so that Westerners forget a little their remonstrances with regard to Xinjiang or Chinese military ambitions in the China Sea. »
The geopolitical argument
China aspires to the rank of superpower, but remains largely a spectator of the international theater, essentially confining its foreign doctrine to strict respect for national sovereignties. “The Chinese have never played the role of policeman of the world endorsed by the United States, emphasizes Guy Saint-Jacques. China is an immature and hesitant power that does not yet know how to behave on the international stage. »
The former ambassador cites an anecdote dating back to 2015, when a senior Chinese diplomat confessed to her country’s dismay at its new global stature.
“Now that we’ve reached the top of the mountain, we’re not used to the view,” the woman told the Canadian ambassador. We would need your advice on how to act at this altitude. »
For Charles-Philippe David, the war in Ukraine forces Beijing to open its game and define what type of power it intends to project on the planet. “It forces China to choose more quickly how it will behave and what influence it will exert, says the specialist of the Raoul-Dandurand Chair. She must define her role on the international scene more quickly than she thought. »
On Friday, at the end of the exchange between Beijing and the White House, Chinese state media reported Xi Jinping’s remarks as follows: “As the world’s two largest economies, it is not only our responsibility to conduct Sino- on the right track, but also to assume our international responsibilities and to work for peace and tranquility in the world. »
Words that will remain thrown in the air as long as the bombs disfigure Ukraine, dropped by a Russian neighbor that China, more than anyone else, can still reason with.