Friedrich Merz, leader of the CDU, is progressing towards his goal of becoming chancellor, but faces skepticism from his party regarding his ability to effect real political change. As coalition negotiations unfold, he has linked his future to their success, dismissing the idea of a minority government. Despite recent political achievements, including securing funding for defense and infrastructure, Merz’s shifting positions have alienated his base, creating pressure to deliver on key policies while navigating internal party dynamics.
Friedrich Merz’s Journey Toward the Chancellery
Step by step, CDU leader Friedrich Merz is inching closer to the chancellery he has long aspired to. Nonetheless, skepticism is mounting among his party’s base regarding his capability to instigate a genuine political turnaround.
As coalition negotiations reach a pivotal moment, Merz has linked his political future to their outcome. A failure could spell the end of his political career, and he has dismissed the notion of a minority government. Naturally, the Union’s candidate for chancellor is focused on success, firmly believing that failure is not an option.
Political Achievements and Challenges
This sentiment is understandable, given the significant political strides Merz has made in just four weeks following the federal elections. He has navigated various challenges, with the black-red exploratory talks progressing swiftly and without major disputes. This was highlighted by an unexpected agreement on two special funds—massive financial packages aimed at enhancing defense and infrastructure, which will be financed through debt. Amendments to the constitution were made to adjust the debt brake regulations, allowing for increased borrowing capacity for the federal states.
With billions allocated for defense and infrastructure, the pressing question now is how these funds will be allocated. In a surprising shift, Merz has adopted a more conciliatory tone towards the Greens, having previously labeled them ‘green lunatics’ just before the elections. This transformation signifies more than just a change in rhetoric, as he has also garnered the necessary support from the Bundesrat, requiring a two-thirds majority in both the Bundestag and Bundesrat to advance his plans.
However, Merz is now facing backlash from his own party base, the very group that empowered his rise to the capital and facilitated his candidacy for chancellor during his third attempt at the party leadership in late 2021. After years of political service, Merz is eager to claim the CDU chancellorship, but he is met with high expectations.
While the Stuttgart CDU expresses a desire for a Chancellor Merz to achieve a political turnaround, they emphasize that this should not come at any cost. Their resolution conveys a clear warning to Merz: if the political turnaround is sacrificed for personal ambition, many within the federal committee will reject the coalition agreement. Their stance is straightforward—Chancellor Merz is welcome, but not at any price.
This sentiment echoes concerns about Merz’s recent statements aimed at bolstering Germany’s and Europe’s defense capabilities while seeking exemptions from the debt brake. Compounding the unease is the disappointing election outcome, which has left the party base feeling disheartened. The flexibility displayed by their chancellor candidate on debt policies has raised eyebrows among those who campaigned for him, especially since the CDU’s election program firmly stated their commitment to the constitutional debt brake.
Merz’s ability to navigate the political landscape is under scrutiny. His supporters had hoped for a shift in management style and rhythm once he took charge, particularly from those who felt constrained by Angela Merkel’s compromise-driven politics. Recently, Merz has won over the SPD, Greens, and even Union state leaders with his pragmatic approach concerning the special funds, as effective compromise is essential for any chancellor and future coalition. Robert Habeck noted that the previous coalition, known as the ‘traffic light,’ failed due to its inability to compromise.
Yet, Merz’s credibility is now at stake, with his party base feeling increasingly alienated. He must deliver on economic and migration policies to restore trust; otherwise, both his and the CDU’s credibility could be compromised. These sentiments are not exclusive to the Stuttgart CDU but resonate throughout the party. As he navigates his path to the chancellery, Merz cannot afford to overlook the critical voices emerging from within his ranks.
As he forges ahead in forming a government, questions linger about who Merz listens to during this process. The absence of seasoned advisors in governance and strategy raises concerns; figures like CDU General Secretary Carsten Linnemann and parliamentary group manager Thorsten Frei are part of his inner circle yet lack extensive governmental experience. Merz is recognized within the party for encouraging dissent and occasionally altering his positions.
Today, the working groups from both the Union and SPD are set to present their findings, although differences remain. Despite this, there’s a lingering impression that Merz has often brushed aside important feedback in recent weeks, which raises doubts about the effectiveness of his advisory team. For instance, his assurance regarding the Greens’ approval of the exploratory paper proved premature, as the mere mention of ‘climate protection’ was insufficient. He subsequently proposed a staggering 50 billion euros from the special fund for infrastructure specifically earmarked for climate initiatives, only to find that the Greens later negotiated for 100 billion euros privately, emerging victorious.
In the Bundestag debate where the financial packages were approved, Merz proclaimed that he had been informed during a trip to Brussels: ‘Germany is back!’ suggesting a readiness to reclaim Germany’s position on the global stage, while concurrently the coalition negotiation working groups were just beginning their discussions. His declaration of wanting a government in place by Easter has inadvertently placed additional pressure on him, complicating negotiations with the SPD. Consequently, Merz is faced with a delicate balancing act: he must navigate the growing demands of his party while striving to avoid failure, all while the SPD is acutely aware of his predicament.