(Ottawa) “This is not the result we wanted,” Justin Trudeau euphemized the day after the Liberal discomfiture in a Toronto castle. In the camp of the conquerors, it is believed that the capture of this bastion militates in favor of calling a general election.
What there is to know
- The Conservatives won a narrow victory in a Toronto riding that had been in the Liberal fold since 1993.
- Prime Minister Justin Trudeau conceded that the result was disappointing, and assured that he had heard the “frustrations” of the electorate.
- According to observers, the defeat in this liberal stronghold bodes ill for the next general elections.
Liberals – and pollsters, and observers – expected a narrow Liberal victory.
The conservatives doubted they would be able to achieve the feat.
After a long count, in the early hours of Tuesday morning, the result fell – like the liberal fortress of Toronto–St. Paul’s, which collapsed after flying the red flag for three decades.
Conservative Don Stewart thus had the upper hand over Leslie Church by 590 votes (42.1% against 40.5% of the votes cast), after having lagged behind for several hours.
PHOTO TAKEN FROM THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY OF CANADA WEBSITE
Don Stewart
His triumph in the urban constituency of “416” galvanized the conservative troops
“Here is the verdict: Justin Trudeau cannot continue like this. He must call an election on the carbon tax now,” wrote leader Pierre Poilievre on the X network.
PHOTO CHRISTINNE MUSCHI, CANADIAN PRESS ARCHIVES
Pierre Poilievre
Several of his deputies imitated him. “It’s time to call on Canadians to vote for change!” », wrote Luc Berthold in particular.
Justin Trudeau hangs on
The prime minister agreed the beating was painful. “This is obviously not the outcome we wanted, but I want to make it clear that I hear your concerns and your frustrations,” he said in a statement relayed by his office.
“It is clear that I and my entire Liberal team still have a lot of work to do to achieve real, tangible progress that Canadians can see and feel,” he added.
PHOTO CHRIS YOUNG, THE CANADIAN PRESS
Liberal Leslie Church addressing her troops in the evening. She was on track to be elected in Toronto – St. Paul’s at the time.
Justin Trudeau repeated the message transmitted by his office almost word for word, on the sidelines of an announcement in Vancouver. He did not speak to the media on site.
And despite this electoral snub, the Prime Minister has shown no intention of throwing in the towel.
In any case, he has the confidence of Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland. “He must not leave,” she declared at a press briefing in Toronto.
“Yes, I am disappointed by the results. We have to take them seriously, and we do,” added the woman who is also Minister of Finance, who represents a riding bordering Toronto – St. Paul’s.
All the more so since the turnout was anything but anemic, in the context of a by-election: it stood at 43.5%, according to preliminary data from Elections Canada.
Support from the Jewish community
According to data from the polling firm Mainstreet Research, the vote of the Jewish community may have tipped the scales in favor of the Conservatives.
According to the investigation1 carried out with a “small sample” after the advance vote, 62.6% of Jewish voters would have lined up behind Don Stewart, compared to 20.7% for Leslie Church.
The riding has the fifth highest proportion of Jewish residents in the country, at 15%, according to 2021 census data.
A dangerous turnaround
But beyond the figures, what is certain is that a serious examination of conscience is required, judges Jeremy Ghio, former strategist with the federal and Quebec Liberals.
“This county has gone through the liberal crises of the last 30 years. The sponsorship scandal, Jack Layton’s orange wave, Stephen Harper’s majority government,” he emphasizes.
The lesson to be learned from the poor performance is that “the results could be even more catastrophic than in 2011 [aux prochaines élections générales] ” he says.
A failure in this constituency considered to be one of the safest makes us fear for the others, adds polling expert Philippe J. Fournier, creator of the 338Canada site.
“If such a swing comes to Toronto, half of Toronto could turn blue [conservateur]. And there, we enter a fairly dangerous zone for the liberals,” he says.
A perilous zone which could relegate the Liberal Party to the role of second opposition.
“With the Bloc Québécois performing quite well, if the Liberals have such a result in the general election, they will finish third and [le chef bloquiste] Yves-François Blanchet is leader of the opposition,” he said.
The next election is not scheduled before October 2025.
Until then, another by-election is on the agenda: voters in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun must be called to the polls by July 30.
The Montreal riding has been without an MP since the resignation of former minister David Lametti last February.
1 View excerpts from the Mainstreet Research survey