François Legault’s government is experiencing a significant decline in support, polling at just 21%, reminiscent of its pre-2016 standings. The Parti Québécois is benefiting from this drop, achieving a popularity high of 35%. Despite the PQ’s success, it faces internal challenges regarding support for sovereignty. Other parties, including the Liberal Party of Quebec, are struggling with leadership issues, while the political landscape remains largely static. Recent surveys indicate shifting voter sentiments in Quebec’s political dynamics.
François Legault’s administration is facing significant challenges, with recent polling indicating a drop in support levels not seen in eight years. Meanwhile, the Parti Québécois (PQ) is experiencing a noteworthy surge in popularity.
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The CAQ’s Struggles
Currently, the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) has only 21% of voter intentions, a figure reminiscent of its 2016 standings, which preceded their rise to power. After a brief recovery over the summer, the CAQ has faced challenges upon returning to parliament, causing them to reevaluate their position.
The government’s satisfaction rating has also seen a decline, dropping six points down to 32%.
Political Landscape and Shifting Trends
Sébastien Dallaire, the executive vice president of Léger, highlights that the government is grappling with an array of issues, leaving little room for optimism. He notes that similar challenges are being faced by governments across the West, all navigating the complexities of post-pandemic governance.
The CAQ’s difficulties have been compounded by its electoral defeat last year in Jean-Talon and subsequent controversies regarding infrastructure projects. “They have not managed to turn the tide,” Dallaire remarks, indicating that their brief resurgence over the summer has not sustained momentum.
The Parti Québécois is capitalizing on the CAQ’s misfortunes, currently enjoying a surge in support. “Voters are increasingly turning to them,” Dallaire notes, as the PQ’s popularity hits a high not seen since the 2012 elections, now polling at 35% under the leadership of Paul St-Pierre Plamondon.
Despite the favorable polling, Dallaire advises caution, emphasizing the theoretical margin of error of just over 3%. Nonetheless, the trend indicates a significant lead for the PQ in Quebec’s voting intentions.
However, the PQ faces internal challenges as well, with support for Quebec sovereignty stagnant at 37%, and a notable portion of its voter base—25%—expressing opposition to independence. Dallaire warns that this is a demographic the PQ must engage to ensure continued support as the party promises a referendum in its first majority mandate.
Other Parties and Leadership Dynamics
The political climate is relatively stagnant for the other parties. The Liberal Party of Quebec (PLQ) is struggling to gain traction amidst a leadership race, while Québec Solidaire (QS) and the Conservative Party of Quebec (PCQ) have each lost one percentage point in polling.
As for the PLQ, Denis Coderre’s reputation may hinder his chances in the leadership contest, with 55% of respondents holding a negative view of the former Montreal mayor. Even among his own party’s supporters, his approval is only 30%, with 52% expressing unfavorable opinions.
In contrast, rival candidate Pablo Rodriguez has only 18% disapproval, and he remains largely unknown to 46% of Quebecers, presenting a potential opportunity for him to build support. If he were to lead the PLQ, 26% of voters would consider supporting the party, compared to just 20% under Coderre’s leadership.
METHODOLOGY
This web survey was conducted with 1,010 Quebec residents aged 18 and older between November 8 and 11, 2024. While it is not possible to calculate a margin of error for samples drawn from a panel, for comparative purposes, the maximum margin of error for a sample of 1,010 respondents is ± 3.08%, 19 times out of 20.