It is the end of Ukrainian sovereignty in the Luhansk region: apprehended for weeks, the total capture of the region by the Russian army was finally announced on Sunday. This constitutes, according to two experts consulted by Le Devoir, a symbolic but predictable turning point in this war which is bogged down.
It was first the Russian authorities who declared in the morning that the key city of Lyssytchansk, the last Ukrainian stronghold in Luhansk, had surrendered after weeks of devastating fighting. “In order to preserve the lives of the Ukrainian defenders, the decision was taken to withdraw” from the city, then announced the staff of the Ukrainian armed forces in a press release.
As the war continues to sow desolation and destruction in the country, Russian President Vladimir Putin is now making progress towards one of his main military objectives: to take full control of the predominantly Russian-speaking region of Donbass. With Luhansk now under Russian control, it is the other part of Donbass, Donetsk, which should expect to be the target of Russian fire in the coming days.
In a speech on Sunday evening, the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, attempted a message of hope: “If the command of our army withdraws troops from certain points of the front where the enemy has the advantage of fire – and that applies in particular to Lysytchansk — it only means one thing: that we will come back”.
Endurance, a Russian advantage
This defeat of Ukrainian forces comes as the neighboring city of Lysytchansk, Severodonetsk, recently fell under the Russian yoke after being heavily pounded. And despite some recent Ukrainian victories in the north of the country, the violence of the fighting in the Donbass does not portend happy days for the attacked country, according to professor in the Department of Political Science at the Royal Military College of Canada Pierre Jolicoeur.
“In the long term, the advantage is always with Russia, he believes. Russia still has plenty of potential to attack Ukraine, which is outgunned and dependent on Western aid. »
Weak encouragement for Ukraine: the rate of Ukrainian territory occupied by Russia since the start of the war is relatively stable and fluctuates between 19.5% and 22%, according to interactive maps consulted by the professor, including that of the Institute for the Study of War. This percentage also includes Crimea, annexed by Russia in 2014.
But Mr. Jolicoeur still foresees future military difficulties for Ukraine, which is notably caused by the nebulous nature of Russian motivations. “Is Russia’s goal to annex the two provinces that it recognized as independent a few days before the war or simply to destroy as much as possible the Ukrainian infrastructure to prevent the country from recovering and constituting a longer term threat? he wonders. On February 21, three days before the start of the invasion, Putin formally recognized the independence of the self-proclaimed pro-Russian republics of Donetsk and Luhansk.
He adds that the West’s commitment to Ukraine could eventually dry up. “No matter how noble the cause, Western countries may end up finding it expensive if there is no prospect of Russia giving up or burning itself out. »
Crucial choices
On the 130th day of this unpredictable war, the scenarios proposed for its outcome are many and varied. Ferry de Kerckhove, a veteran diplomat and professional-in-residence at the University of Ottawa’s Graduate School of Public and International Affairs, believes both the West and Zelensky will face crucial new choices.
“The capture of Luhansk is a turning point, but also a moment of realism, he argues. Or we [l’Occident] let’s give Zelensky the means to counter-attack, or else we must come to an agreement with Russia on the Luhansk border. »
I have the impression that we are trying to justify Belarus going to war. We can already consider this country as a co-belligerent.
In other words, if Ukraine were to agree to cede Luhansk and perhaps even the whole of Donbass to Russia, the fighting could probably stop, which would allow Ukraine to know more peaceful days. But so many imponderables remain: would such an agreement be enough to calm Putin’s dreams of grandeur, who seems to want to control all of Ukraine? And would Zelensky agree to negotiate, he who declared on Sunday that the Ukrainian forces withdrew from Lysytchansk to better “return” there?
Mr de Kerckhove sees the possibility that the Donbass will pass entirely into Russian hands while the rest of Ukraine will remain independent and join NATO, as Zelensky ardently wishes. But if this option displeases Putin, the conflict could degenerate into an “all-out war”. “The day when the Russians want to put the package, they will be able to do it, and in a terrible way”, predicts Mr. de Kerckhove.
Tensions with Belarus
Thus, the prospect of a complete Ukrainian victory is dissipating, if not disappearing more each day. Especially since diplomatic friction in the region is worsening: Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko accused Ukraine on Saturday of having fired missiles towards its territory.
“We are provoked. I have to tell you that about three days ago, maybe more, there was an attempt from Ukraine to hit military targets in Belarus. Praise be to God, our Pantsir anti-aircraft systems intercepted all missiles fired by Ukrainian forces,” he said.
Unsupported by any evidence, this accusation comes just over a week after Vladimir Putin announced an imminent delivery of missiles capable of carrying nuclear payloads to Belarus. “When I add these two elements, I have the impression that we are trying to justify Belarus’ entry into the war,” explains Professor Pierre Jolicoeur. We can already consider this country as a co-belligerent. »
In this conflict now punctuated by a new major defeat for the Ukrainian army, after those of Mariupol and Severodonetsk, a partial or total victory for the attacked country seems increasingly uncertain. The strong Western support currently allows Ukraine to defend its positions in the northwest of the country and especially near the capital, kyiv. But both the exceptional resilience of the Ukrainian army and the solid financing of Western countries seem destined not to last forever.
With Agence France-Presse