In a context of “evolving global threats,” Canada must invest more to defend itself against Russia and China, argued federal Defense Minister Bill Blair on Thursday morning.
The minister was appearing before a parliamentary committee in Ottawa to present an update of priorities within his mandate, which he explained has evolved due to the emergence of new global conflicts. “The world has changed significantly since the mandate letter was issued in 2021. That was long before Russia invaded Ukraine, China escalated its coercive behavior, and the Middle East conflict destabilized regional security and global”, indicated the minister in front of the elected officials.
Mr. Blair called for a “necessary” evolution in Canada’s approach to defense and national security, which requires significant new investments from Ottawa. To this end, the minister recalled the investments already unveiled earlier this year in the defense policy update, which provides for $8.1 billion over five years and $73 billion over 20 years.
The sums are largely allocated to the defense of the Canadian Arctic, at a time when the melting of the polar ice facilitates access to these waters.
In recent years, Russia has strengthened its military presence in the Arctic by reopening and modernizing several bases and airfields abandoned since the end of the Soviet era, while China seeks to increase its access and influence in the region.
“The war in Ukraine taught us a lot about our own strengths and vulnerabilities. […] We are learning lessons to invest in the Canadian Arctic, to better detect, intercept and neutralize threats,” added Minister Blair.
Lack of short-term vision
The investments planned by Ottawa are clearly insufficient to face the threat, criticized two experts appearing two weeks ago at the Standing Committee on National Defense.
Justin Massie, co-director of the Strategic Analysis Network and professor of political science at the University of Quebec in Montreal, particularly deplored the “strategic incoherence” of updating defense policy for short-term threats. “89% of the sums announced will take place between 2030 and 2044. There is clearly no sense of urgency regarding international threats,” he argued.
According to him, the end of the war in Ukraine, potential Russian aggression in Latvia and potential Chinese aggression against Taiwan are imminent threats to Canada and its allies. “Canada has a 20-year policy to deal with tangible threats within a five-year horizon,” he summarized.
During this same committee session, associate professor in the political science department of the University of Calgary Rob Huebert criticized Ottawa’s overly “political” approach. “What we needed in [la mise à jour de la politique de défense]is to recognize that we should not only talk about numbers. In Canada, we are fixated on the 2% [du PIB en dépenses militaires] when in reality, what our allies are asking us is to be ready to wage war,” he told elected officials.
Many had criticized the investments planned in the defense policy update, when it was unveiled in April, since spending will remain below the NATO objective of 2% of GDP in 2029-2030. “Canada’s credibility is very low, because we made this commitment more than 10 years ago and it has still not been achieved. Nor will it be in the short term,” added Professor Massie.
This summer, the U.S. Department of Defense also released a strategic update of its approach to the Arctic, emphasizing enhanced military capabilities and proactive measures against Russia and China. “These two competitors are increasingly collaborating in the Arctic, which has implications for the security of the United States and our allies and partners,” the document reads.