Canada is on track to become one of the world leaders in the expansion of the oil and gas sectors in the coming years, deplores Oil Change International, in a report published Tuesday. The organization is therefore urging the Trudeau government to quickly deliver on its promise to cap and reduce industry emissions, a regulation whose details are expected this fall.
According to the conclusions of this research group, which is very critical of our dependence on fossil fuels, Canada could become the second most important country in terms of increased oil and gas production by 2050. It would thus be overtaken by the States -United, but would precede several other large producers, including Norway, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
Oil Change International calculates that Canada alone could represent nearly 10% of the overall expansion planned during this period. This new exploitation, if it materializes, would represent total emissions of 18.6 billion tonnes of greenhouse gases, according to the calculations included in this report of around thirty pages. Such a report would be equivalent to the overall emissions of 117 coal-fired power plants, it is illustrated, while describing Canada as a “climate hypocrite”.
The organization deplores the measures which open the door to growth in production, including the granting of new oil and gas exploration permits, the green light for projects like Bay du Nord, the growing place of fracking in the exploitation and financial support to the sectors.
We also mention the case of the expansion of the Trans Mountain pipeline network, an infrastructure that has so far cost more than $30 billion, which is owned by the government and which is designed to facilitate the export of tar sands oil.
Emissions cap
However, the expansion of fossil fuel production planned in the world, and in particular in Canada, would “make it impossible” to achieve the objectives of the Paris Agreement, namely limiting warming to 1.5°C compared to in the pre-industrial era. An opinion shared by the Secretary General of the UN, Antonio Guterres, as well as the International Energy Agency.
Oil Change International is therefore urging the federal government to implement “an exit” from fossil fuels, in particular by relying on capping and reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the oil and gas sectors.
It is specified that this cap should take into account “the entire supply chain”, and therefore include emissions produced during the use of exported oil and gas. These emissions totaled more than four billion tonnes between 2016 and 2020, according to a report from Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC).
The Trudeau government has promised since 2021 to impose a cap and a reduction in GHG emissions from the oil and gas sectors. Where is the development of regulations? A “working document” was published during the summer of 2022, for consultation purposes with the provinces and the industry, in particular. “Further details on the approach should be announced later this fall,” ECCC said, in response to questions from the Duty.
“While the details of the cap remain to be confirmed, as outlined in the 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan, the Government of Canada is committed to capping and reducing emissions from the oil and gas sectors at the pace and on the scale necessary to achieve the 2030 climate objectives and net zero emissions by 2050,” assures the ministry.
Increase in production
What’s more, according to the federal government, carbon capture and storage (CCS) “is a key technology, among others, which will continue to enable the decarbonization of the oil and gas sectors.” The development of CCS projects, which is still in the experimental stage, has received millions of dollars in funding from Ottawa. The oil industry, including tar sands companies, is promoting CCS.
Meanwhile, the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers predicted earlier this year that investments in oil and gas production will reach $40 billion this year.
Over the coming years, we are also focusing on the development of new exploitation projects, particularly in the marine environment, off the coast of Newfoundland and Labrador. According to available official data, gas and oil production is expected to increase in the country.